2025 Election Preview: A National Test One Year After Trump’s Return/ Newslooks/ WASHINGTON/ J. Mansour/ Morning Edition/ The first general election since Donald Trump’s return to the White House is underway. High-profile races across Virginia, New Jersey, and New York will test public response to his second-term agenda. Ballot measures, governor races, and court control are all on the line.
Post-Trump Election Landscape – Quick Looks
- First nationwide election since Trump returned to office in 2024
- Governor races in Virginia and New Jersey seen as key indicators
- NYC mayoral race features progressive Mamdani, Cuomo, and Sliwa
- California’s Prop 50 could flip multiple congressional seats
- Pennsylvania voters decide fate of 3 Democratic state Supreme Court justices
- State legislatures in Minnesota, Virginia, and New Jersey face power shifts
- Ballot initiatives in Texas, Maine, and Colorado address major issues
- Trump backs GOP candidates and pushes for redistricting advantages
- Election seen as early test of Trump’s influence on local politics
- Mayoral elections in Detroit, Atlanta, Pittsburgh, and more
Deep Look
2025 Election Preview: A National Test One Year After Trump’s Return
WASHINGTON — Just one year into Donald Trump’s second term, the 2025 general elections are shaping up to be a nationwide referendum on his leadership. From competitive governor’s races to controversial ballot measures, Tuesday’s vote will gauge the political direction of a country once again under Trump’s influence.
State and local races in more than half of U.S. states will provide insight into whether Americans are endorsing Trump’s expanded use of executive authority or resisting it at the ballot box. With control of state legislatures, governorships, and judicial bodies in question, the election marks a defining moment of the early Trump 2.0 era.
Governors’ Races: New Jersey and Virginia in the Spotlight
In New Jersey, Democrat Mikie Sherrill faces Republican Jack Ciattarelli to replace outgoing Governor Phil Murphy. Sherrill, a Navy veteran and four-term congresswoman, offers a continuation of Democratic leadership. Ciattarelli, backed by Trump and narrowly defeated in 2021, is running again on a Trump-aligned platform.
In Virginia, Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears is competing against former Democratic U.S. Rep. Abigail Spanberger. The race has seen national attention, not just for its candidates, but for how much Trump’s policies have influenced state-level discourse — including debate over his sweeping One Big Beautiful Bill tax and spending overhaul and mass dismissals of federal workers, many from Virginia suburbs.
Though Spanberger has attempted to keep the campaign focused on local issues, Trump’s shadow looms large, with Earle-Sears frequently referencing her alignment with the president. Trump is also lending his voice to the races, participating in last-minute phone rallies to energize Republican turnout.
Historically, gubernatorial contests in the year after a presidential election have served as early indicators of voter sentiment. Since 1973, at least one of these states has elected a governor from the opposition party — a trend Democrats hope to continue.
New York City Mayoral Race: Progressives vs. the Establishment
America’s largest city is also facing a political pivot. The mayoral race pits Democratic state lawmaker Zohran Mamdani, a self-described democratic socialist, against Republican Curtis Sliwa and former Gov. Andrew Cuomo, running as an independent.
Mamdani’s surprising win over Cuomo in the Democratic primary ignited excitement among the city’s progressive base, though establishment Democrats expressed concerns about electability. Party leaders, including Governor Kathy Hochul and House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries, eventually offered cautious endorsements after Mamdani secured the nomination.
Outgoing Mayor Eric Adams, who initially pursued reelection as a Democrat before switching to an independent bid and later dropping out, endorsed Cuomo in September. In a controversial move, the Trump Justice Department withdrew corruption charges against Adams earlier this year, citing alignment with Trump’s immigration agenda. Trump has said publicly he would prefer both Adams and Sliwa exit the race to consolidate opposition to Mamdani.
California Proposition 50: Gerrymandering Showdown
In a major redistricting battle, California voters will decide Proposition 50, a ballot measure aimed at redrawing congressional districts to favor Democrats. Backed by Governor Gavin Newsom, the measure seeks to offset a Republican-led redistricting effort in Texas that could flip five seats in the 2026 midterms.
The California proposition is a direct response to Texas’ aggressive redrawing of districts last August under Trump’s encouragement. The escalation has triggered what analysts are calling a “gerrymandering arms race” as both parties seek to tilt the playing field outside of the usual 10-year redistricting cycle.
Pennsylvania Supreme Court: Judicial Balance at Stake
In Pennsylvania, voters will decide whether to retain three sitting justices from the state Supreme Court’s current 5-2 Democratic majority. The outcome could reshape the court’s ideological balance, especially important as the court could play a crucial role in the 2028 presidential election, just as it did in 2020.
Republicans have poured millions into efforts to unseat the justices, and Democrats have responded in kind. If all three justices are removed, and the legislature deadlocks on replacements, the court could remain split 2-2 until the next full election in 2027.
More Races to Watch
- Virginia Attorney General: Republican incumbent Jason Miyares is challenged by Democrat Jay Jones. The campaign has been marred by controversy over text messages Jones sent in 2022, which allegedly included threats against political rivals.
- Texas’ 18th Congressional District: Sixteen candidates are vying to fill the late Rep. Sylvester Turner’s seat. The crowded field has drawn attention due to its potential influence in the 2026 midterms.
- State Legislatures: Minnesota’s Senate and Virginia’s House of Delegates are both in play. In New Jersey, Democrats are defending a sizable majority in the General Assembly.
Ballot Measures Across the States
- Maine will vote on a new red flag gun law and a voting reform measure.
- Texas has 17 ballot questions, including a proposed constitutional amendment to affirm parental rights and a measure to limit voting to U.S. citizens.
- Colorado and Washington are also weighing in on major statewide initiatives affecting taxation and voting access.
Mayoral Elections and Local Power
Voters in Detroit, Pittsburgh, Buffalo, and Jersey City will elect new mayors. Incumbents in Atlanta, Minneapolis, and Cincinnati are seeking new terms in contests shaped by crime, housing, and post-pandemic recovery debates.
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