Americans’ Economic Outlook Worsens in June, Confidence Slides/ Newslooks/ WASHINGTON/ J./ Mansour/ Morning Edition/ U.S. consumer confidence dropped to a June reading of 93, down from 98.4 in May. Concerns over tariffs, jobs, and inflation have driven sentiment to its lowest level since mid-2020. Despite ongoing job creation, worries about a recession and higher prices persist.
Americans’ Economic Outlook Worsens in June, Confidence Slides: Quick Looks
- Consumer confidence index falls to 93 in June, down 5.4 points from May
- Short-term expectations plunge to 69, well under recession warning threshold
- Present economic conditions index declines to 129.1
- Annual recession fears remain elevated among consumers
- Job market sentiment deteriorates for the sixth straight month, yet stays positive
- Inflation concern remains strong despite slight easing
- Tariff anxiety continues to weigh on responses
- Geopolitical worries have increased but remain secondary
- Data collected by June 18—after Israel’s bombing of Tehran but before U.S. strikes
Americans’ Economic Outlook Worsens in June, Confidence Slides
Deep Look
Washington, D.C. — June 24, 2025
Consumer sentiment in the U.S. took another hit in June, with the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index sliding to 93, a drop of 5.4 points from May’s 98.4. This decline resumes a downward trend that briefly paused last month and brings sentiment to its lowest level since the depths of the COVID-19 pandemic in May 2020.
Surge in Recession Worries
The Expectations Index, reflecting future perceptions of income, business prospects, and job availability, fell nearly 4.6 points to 69—well below the 80 threshold often associated with potential recession signals. Meanwhile, views on current conditions also weakened, with a 6.4-point drop to 129.1.
Economists had anticipated a modest uptick in June, making the miss more pronounced and reinforcing concerns that consumer confidence remains fragile amid economic headwinds.
Persistent Tariff and Inflation Anxiety
A consistent theme among survey respondents was the impact of tariffs. Unpredictable trade actions and additional import taxes are creating unease about future household finances and business stability.
Despite inflation showing slight signs of cooling—May’s year-over-year Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.4%, with core prices steady at 2.8%—concern over rising costs remains high. Consumers frequently cited inflation and tariffs together as dual pressures on their financial well-being.
Job Market Shows Signs of Strain
In parallel with falling sentiment, Americans’ confidence in the job market has declined for the sixth consecutive month, although the labor market remains solid. May’s 139,000 jobs added and 4.2% unemployment rate underscore continued resilience. Still, the downward trend in job market perceptions points to increasing fragility in consumer sentiment.
Geopolitical Concerns Stay Secondary
While mention of geopolitical tensions and social unrest increased slightly in June, these themes remain secondary to economic issues in driving consumer sentiment. The survey window closed on June 18, just after heightened conflict in the Middle East but before the U.S. conducted strikes in Iran.
What Lies Ahead?
Analysts say that sliding confidence may influence consumer spending, which accounts for roughly 70% of U.S. economic activity. If fears about tariffs, inflation, and recession persist, growth could slow in the latter half of the year.
The Federal Reserve, currently cautious, will be watching closely. Continued durability in job numbers could grant policymakers the flexibility to tighten or ease depending on emerging data.
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