CBO Warns Trump Tax Bill Adds $3.3 Trillion Debt \ Newslooks \ Washington DC \ Mary Sidiqi \ Evening Edition \ The Congressional Budget Office warns that Senate changes to President Trump’s tax bill would add $3.3 trillion to the U.S. deficit and increase the number of uninsured Americans by 11.8 million by 2034. The projections surpass the House version’s cost and deepen Republican divisions ahead of the July 4 vote. Critics challenge the bill’s math, calling it unrealistic and dangerous.
Quick Looks
- CBO report: Senate bill adds $3.3 trillion to deficit by 2034
- Health coverage hit: 11.8 million projected to lose insurance
- House comparison: House bill adds $2.4 trillion, 10.9 million uninsured
- Internal GOP split: Clashes over Medicaid, food aid cuts
- Political timeline: Trump demands bill passed by July 4
- Late-night vote drama: Bill advances 51-49 after hours of negotiations
- CBO challenge: Republicans use alternate scoring to claim savings
- Alternate estimate: GOP claims $500 billion deficit reduction
- Byrd Rule issue: Traditional scoring could block Senate passage
- Democrats’ reaction: Slam GOP math as “budget gimmickry”
Deep Look
The Senate’s revisions to President Donald Trump’s sweeping tax overhaul are drawing intense scrutiny after the Congressional Budget Office released a stinging analysis showing the updated bill would add nearly $3.3 trillion to the national debt over the next decade—an increase of nearly $1 trillion over the House’s already costly version.
In the new CBO analysis, the Senate version of the tax legislation would not only deepen the fiscal burden but also result in even more Americans losing health coverage. By 2034, the office estimates, 11.8 million more people would be uninsured compared to current law, exceeding the 10.9 million uninsured forecast under the House-passed bill.
These stark numbers further complicate Republican efforts to push the bill through a sharply divided Senate, where even before the CBO report, disagreement had already emerged over the scope of spending cuts and the bill’s potential economic consequences.
The stakes are high for Trump, who has set a July 4 deadline for signing the bill into law. The legislation extends roughly $3.8 trillion worth of tax breaks first implemented during his first term and adds new ones aimed at businesses and high-income earners. To offset some of the cost, Republicans propose significant cuts to federal spending, particularly to Medicaid and nutritional assistance programs—proposals that are sparking internal dissent among GOP senators.
Saturday night’s procedural vote highlighted those tensions. Republican leaders and Vice President JD Vance spent hours negotiating behind closed doors to secure the votes needed to advance the bill. The vote finally moved forward in a 51-49 tally, with all Democrats opposed and a handful of Republicans still expressing concern over the bill’s long-term impact.
Much of the discord stems from how Republicans are framing the cost of the tax legislation. To counter the CBO’s bleak forecast, GOP leaders have adopted a different budgetary baseline that assumes the 2017 Trump tax cuts have already been made permanent. Under this assumption, the Senate Finance Committee’s version of the bill, labeled Title VII, would reduce the deficit by $500 billion, according to a separate CBO analysis released Saturday.
This alternative accounting is what critics—including Democrats and many budget watchdogs—have labeled “magic math.” They argue it grossly underestimates the real costs and dodges the Senate’s Byrd Rule, which prohibits legislation from increasing the deficit beyond a 10-year window without bipartisan support.
Democrats pounced on the report, citing it as proof that Trump’s tax agenda is fiscally irresponsible and disproportionately benefits the wealthy while endangering critical social safety nets. In a letter sent Sunday to Sen. Jeff Merkley, the top Democrat on the Senate Budget Committee, CBO Director Phillip Swagel confirmed that the bill, under traditional scoring methods, would indeed violate the Byrd Rule by increasing deficits after 2034.
The growing chorus of criticism isn’t just coming from Democrats. Some moderate Republicans, especially those facing re-election in swing states, are uneasy with the bill’s reliance on deep social spending cuts. Others in the party’s more conservative wing argue the cuts don’t go far enough and want even more aggressive rollbacks to federal programs.
Health policy experts warn that the bill’s projected spike in uninsured Americans would fall hardest on low-income individuals, particularly in states that have not expanded Medicaid. The projected loss in coverage comes as many families are still recovering from inflation and pandemic-era disruptions.
Despite the pushback, the White House insists the tax cuts are necessary to sustain economic growth and return investment to American businesses. In a statement released Sunday evening, Trump’s economic team argued that the bill would “turbocharge” the economy and that “any short-term costs are outweighed by long-term gains in job creation and wage growth.”
Still, with only days left before Trump’s July 4 deadline, the Senate faces an uphill battle to finalize the bill. Amendments must be debated, final vote counts remain uncertain, and the political consequences of passing—or failing—the bill could reverberate well into the 2026 midterms.
For now, the CBO’s numbers add another hurdle to an already contentious legislative sprint, putting pressure on GOP leaders to justify a tax package that not only reshapes the economy but risks rewriting America’s fiscal future.
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