Trump’s New Tariffs Could Cost Employers $82.3 Billions Annually/ Newslooks/ WASHINGTON/ J. Mansour/ Morning Edition/ President Trump’s proposed tariffs could cost U.S. midsized employers $82.3 billion, an analysis by JPMorganChase shows. Companies may offset costs through price hikes or cuts. Economists warn the tariffs risk fueling inflation and impacting consumer prices.
Trump’s Tariff Costs Quick Look
- JPMorganChase estimates $82.3 billion tariff cost for midsized U.S. businesses.
- Retail and wholesale sectors particularly vulnerable to import taxes.
- Economists warn tariffs could raise consumer prices and stoke inflation.
Trump’s Tariffs Could Cost U.S. Employers $82.3 Billion, Analysis Shows
Deep Look
WASHINGTON (AP) — A new analysis estimates that President Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs could saddle a crucial slice of U.S. employers with $82.3 billion in direct costs — a burden that businesses may try to offset through higher prices, layoffs, hiring freezes, or slimmer profit margins.
The JPMorganChase Institute study is among the first to quantify how Trump’s trade agenda would affect midsized companies — those generating between $10 million and $1 billion in annual revenue — which collectively employ about one-third of private-sector American workers. These firms are particularly reliant on imports from countries like China, India, and Thailand, leaving them vulnerable, especially in retail and wholesale sectors, to the Republican president’s proposed import taxes.
The findings cast doubt on Trump’s repeated assertions that foreign producers would bear the brunt of the tariffs. While overall inflation hasn’t yet spiked from these import taxes, major corporations such as Amazon, Costco, Walmart, and Williams-Sonoma buffered themselves by stockpiling inventory in advance of tariff hikes.
Trump faces a July 9 deadline to finalize tariff rates covering goods from dozens of nations. That date stems from the market turmoil that followed his April tariff announcements, after which he imposed a 90-day negotiating window while maintaining a baseline 10% tariff on most imports. Higher rates already apply to steel, aluminum, and goods from China, Mexico, and Canada.
Had Trump stuck to the more aggressive tariffs announced on April 2, midsized businesses analyzed by JPMorganChase would have faced $187.6 billion in direct costs. Under the current plan, the $82.3 billion burden averages out to about $2,080 per employee, or 3.1% of a typical company’s annual payroll. These averages encompass both firms that rely heavily on imports and those that do not.
Speaking Tuesday about the state of trade negotiations, Trump said simply, “Everything’s going well.”
Despite his optimism, only the United Kingdom has formally signed a trade framework with the Trump administration so far. India and Vietnam have indicated they’re nearing similar agreements, but negotiations with other nations remain unresolved.
Economic experts warn the tariffs could eventually stoke broader inflation. A report from Goldman Sachs projects that U.S. companies may pass along roughly 60% of new tariff costs to consumers. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, using its business surveys, estimates that firms could transfer about half the costs of a 10% to 25% tariff without significantly harming consumer demand.
JPMorganChase Institute noted the potential for domestic manufacturers to expand production as import costs rise. Yet it cautioned that many wholesalers and retailers operate on tight profit margins and might have little choice but to pass the added costs onto customers.
Trade policy remains highly volatile. Trump briefly halted negotiations with Canada, resuming only after Ottawa dropped a proposed tax on digital services. This week, he also threatened new tariffs on Japan unless it buys more American rice.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent praised the administration’s progress, saying long-time staff at the Treasury, Commerce Department, and the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative were impressed by the deals being crafted.
“People who have been at Treasury, at Commerce, at USTR for 20 years are saying that these are deals like they’ve never seen before,” Bessent said Tuesday on Fox News Channel’s “Fox & Friends.”
The administration plans further trade discussions next week while also focusing on securing final passage of the multitrillion-dollar tax package the Senate passed on Tuesday. Trump has set Friday as his target date for the bill’s approval, hoping future tariff revenues will help offset its massive costs.
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