Who Wins and Loses Under Trump’s ‘Big, Beautiful Bill’/ Newslooks/ WASHINGTON/ J. Mansour/ Morning Edition/ President Trump’s “big, beautiful bill” promises gains for manufacturers and defense contractors through tax breaks and spending increases. Green energy firms face loss of tax credits, while hospitals brace for major cuts. Markets welcome clarity, but risks remain for vulnerable sectors.
Trump’s Big, Beautiful Bill – Quick Look
- Manufacturing gains from 100% bonus depreciation, aiding heavy industry.
- Defense spending surges by $150 billion under the bill.
- Green energy loses crucial tax credits, hitting wind, solar, EVs.
- Hospitals threatened by $1.1 trillion in healthcare cuts.
- Investors welcome clarity, but sectors face mixed fortunes.
Who Wins and Loses Under Trump’s ‘Big, Beautiful Bill’
Deep Look
Manufacturers and defense contractors look poised to gain from President Donald Trump’s sweeping “big, beautiful bill,” while green energy firms and hospitals face significant challenges under the proposed legislation.
Why it matters: Investors are breathing a cautious sigh of relief as the bill offers some clarity about tax and spending priorities. But certain industries remain on edge, bracing for potential fallout from new policies.
Winners
Manufacturing:
- Businesses will benefit from expanded tax provisions, including 100% bonus depreciation, allowing them to write off equipment costs immediately instead of over several years.
- “The John Deeres and Caterpillars of the world benefit from 100% bonus depreciation,” says Henrietta Treyz of Veda Partners. However, she warns that the stimulative effects could be blunted by new tariffs on key inputs like steel and aluminum.
Defense Industry:
- Defense spending is set to surge by $150 billion under the bill, with the administration eyeing a broader goal of pushing the defense budget past $1 trillion annually.
- “Markets do not appreciate…at all” just how significant this defense boost is, says Terry Haines, founder of Pangaea Policy.
- Palantir, an AI-driven defense contractor with close ties to Trump, remains one of the top five best-performing stocks in the S&P 500 this year.
Losers
Clean Energy:
- While a proposed tax on wind and solar projects was dropped from the final bill, key tax credits for renewables are still on the chopping block.
- “For many in that sector, this bill would represent their fears confirmed,” said John Gimigliano, principal in charge of federal tax legislative and regulatory services at KPMG U.S.
- The removal of the $7,500 federal tax credit for electric vehicles is also expected to be a blow to EV makers, posing additional challenges for companies like Tesla, despite its recent stock rebound.
Hospitals and Healthcare:
- Hospitals face steep challenges as the Congressional Budget Office estimates $1.1 trillion in cuts to healthcare programs under the bill.
- “Hospitals have just gotten absolutely smoked, so much so that quite frankly there’s no way that these cuts go into effect,” said Treyz.
- The cuts could also strain hospital real estate investment trusts (REITs) and ripple into broader economic consequences as millions potentially lose access to social safety nets.
The Bottom Line
Even with clear winners and losers, analysts say the bill offers one crucial benefit: certainty.
“Whatever you think of the bill, these folks have created a lot more certainty in the markets,” Haines said.
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