National Retail Federation Predicts Holiday Sales to Increase 3.7% to 4.2%/ Newslooks/ WASHINGTON/ J. Mansour/ Morning Edition/ The National Retail Federation expects U.S. holiday sales to rise between 3.7% and 4.2% this year. Despite concerns over inflation, tariffs, and a prolonged government shutdown, consumers are still projected to spend over $1 trillion. The forecast reflects cautious optimism in a challenging economic climate.
2025 Holiday Sales Forecast Quick Looks
- NRF projects 2025 holiday spending to grow 3.7% to 4.2%
- Estimated total sales: $1.01 trillion to $1.02 trillion
- Forecast covers November and December spending
- Inflation and economic uncertainty loom, but demand remains strong
- Last year’s holiday sales rose 4.3% from 2023
- Forecast excludes sales from auto dealers, gas stations, and restaurants
- Data released despite ongoing government shutdown
- No current updates on employment or broader retail activity
Deep Look: NRF Sees Holiday Retail Growth in 2025 Despite Inflation and Shutdown
NEW YORK — U.S. holiday retail sales are expected to climb again this year, with consumers projected to spend between $1.01 trillion and $1.02 trillion during the 2025 holiday season, according to a new forecast from the National Retail Federation (NRF). That represents a 3.7% to 4.2% increase compared to the same November-December period in 2024 — a sign of resilience even amid persistent economic challenges.
The trade group’s annual forecast, released Thursday, shows that American consumers are still likely to open their wallets this holiday season, despite mounting concerns about inflation, lingering tariffs, and the longest government shutdown in U.S. history. This year’s forecast, however, reflects slightly slower growth than last year, when holiday sales rose by 4.3%.
“The consumer continues to show remarkable strength,” said NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz in a statement. “Even with inflation and policy uncertainty, we expect continued spending growth, driven by job stability, wage gains, and pent-up demand.”
The projected sales figures exclude automotive, gasoline, and restaurant spending and are based on an analysis of historical trends and current government data — though that data remains limited due to the ongoing shutdown.
Now in its 37th day, the government shutdown has delayed the release of key economic indicators such as retail sales reports and employment data, which typically provide important context for the NRF’s forecasts. The lack of updated data creates added uncertainty, but the NRF believes its projection still accurately reflects the consumer outlook heading into the holiday season.
“Despite a lack of fresh government data, we’re confident in the consumer’s ability to drive growth,” said Kleinhenz. “Retailers are preparing for a busy season and will be closely watching shopper behavior.”
The slight dip in the forecasted growth rate compared to 2024 reflects broader concerns about inflation’s impact on household budgets. Although inflation has moderated compared to previous years, higher prices across categories like food, energy, and household goods continue to strain consumers, especially in lower- and middle-income brackets.
Retailers are responding with increased promotions, expanded financing options, and earlier sales events designed to stretch consumer dollars. Many have already launched early holiday campaigns in October, hoping to capture shoppers looking to plan ahead and spread out spending.
Another complicating factor for this year’s forecast is uncertainty around tariffs and global trade tensions, which continue to affect supply chains and wholesale costs. While retailers have adapted to pandemic-era disruptions, they remain cautious about price volatility and logistics as the year ends.
Still, retail analysts say that consumer spending behavior in 2025 has so far shown resilience. Strong employment figures earlier this year and ongoing wage growth in key sectors helped sustain consumer confidence through much of the fall, although that optimism could be tested if the government shutdown drags on much longer.
“Shoppers are smart,” said NRF spokesperson Sarah Withers. “They’re finding ways to navigate inflation — whether that means shifting to value brands, using more credit, or waiting for the best deals. But they still want to celebrate, and they’re still showing up.”
The NRF’s holiday sales forecast includes both in-store and online purchases, with e-commerce expected to continue playing a growing role. Many retailers are investing heavily in digital platforms, same-day delivery, and mobile shopping experiences to compete for consumer attention.
In addition to gifts and decorations, seasonal spending on apparel, home goods, and personal care products typically sees a boost during the holidays. Gift cards, electronics, and experiential purchases like travel and entertainment are also expected to perform well, particularly among younger consumers.
Retailers across the country are now finalizing hiring plans, inventory levels, and marketing strategies to maximize the short but crucial holiday period. For many, the final two months of the year account for nearly a quarter of annual revenue.
With the NRF’s forecast offering cautious optimism, businesses are hoping for a strong finish to 2025 — even as they navigate an uncertain economic landscape and limited insight from federal data.
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