AP-NORC Poll Shows Republicans’ Edge on Immigration Shrinks/ Newslooks/ WASHINGTON/ J. Mansour/ Morning Edition/ A new AP-NORC poll shows Republicans’ advantage on immigration narrowing. Six in ten Americans say Trump has “gone too far” with enforcement tactics. Independents are increasingly critical of federal immigration actions in U.S. cities.
AP-NORC Immigration Poll – Quick Looks
- 60% say Trump has “gone too far” in cities
- Immigration approval steady at about 4 in 10
- GOP edge on immigration shrinks to 4 points
- 3 in 10 trust Republicans; similar share trust Democrats
- Independents’ support drops sharply since 2025
Deep Look: Republicans’ Immigration Advantage Narrows as Independents Turn Skeptical, AP-NORC Poll Finds
A new poll from The Associated Press and the NORC at the University of Chicago suggests that President Donald Trump’s hardline immigration tactics are eroding Republicans’ long-standing advantage on the issue — particularly among political independents.
About 6 in 10 U.S. adults say Trump has “gone too far” in deploying federal immigration agents into American cities, according to the survey. Roughly the same share believes he has exceeded appropriate limits in using federal law enforcement at public protests.
Approval Holds, But Warning Signs Emerge
Overall approval of Trump’s handling of immigration stands at about 38% — largely unchanged from January. However, beneath that steady headline number lies a growing partisan divide and shifting independent opinion.
While nearly 9 in 10 Democrats and roughly 7 in 10 independents say Trump has gone too far, only about one-quarter of Republicans agree. About half of Republicans say his approach is “about right,” and roughly one-quarter believe he has not gone far enough.
Still, independents appear to be moving away from the president. Approval of Trump’s immigration handling among independents has dropped from 37% in March 2025 to 23% in the latest survey. Around 6 in 10 independents now believe deportation efforts have crossed the line — up from about 46% last spring.
GOP’s Edge on Immigration Shrinks
Historically, immigration has been considered a political strength for Republicans. But the new poll shows that edge narrowing significantly.
About 30% of Americans now say they trust Republicans more to handle immigration, while a similar share say they trust Democrats. Another 30% say neither party would do a better job, and roughly 10% say both parties would handle the issue equally well.
That marks a dramatic shift from October, when Republicans held a 13-point advantage over Democrats on immigration trust. The latest survey shows only a 4-point gap.
Public Opinion of ICE Divided
The poll also found that most Americans view U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement unfavorably.
Only about 3 in 10 adults overall have a favorable opinion of ICE. There is a sharp partisan divide:
- About 7 in 10 Republicans view ICE favorably
- Roughly 2 in 10 independents feel the same
- Just 1 in 10 Democrats hold a favorable view
Criticism has intensified following federal enforcement actions in Minneapolis, where large deployments of agents have sparked protests and violent clashes. Two U.S. citizens have been killed during recent confrontations involving federal officers, events that have amplified public scrutiny.
Republicans Remain Loyal
Despite signs of independent discomfort, Trump’s Republican base remains firmly behind him.
Many GOP voters argue that stricter immigration enforcement is necessary to restore border security and deter illegal entry. Some supporters say deportation efforts have not gone far enough, calling for expanded removals of immigrants living in the country illegally.
Broader Political Implications
Trump’s overall job approval stands at 36%, with similar ratings on the economy and foreign policy. Historically, such numbers might prompt members of a president’s party to distance themselves ahead of midterm elections. But Trump continues to command strong support among Republican voters, keeping party leaders largely unified.
The softening support among independents, however, could carry electoral consequences. Immigration — once a clear Republican advantage — now appears more evenly contested.
As economic concerns and public safety debates intersect with immigration policy, the narrowing gap may signal a more competitive political landscape heading into the 2026 midterms.
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