Abigail Spanberger Holds 9-Point Lead in Virginia Governor’s Race/ Newslooks/ WASHINGTON/ J. Mansour/ Morning Edition/ Democrat Abigail Spanberger leads Republican Winsome Earle-Sears by nine points in the latest Virginia gubernatorial poll. The race is seen as a key bellwether for national politics heading into the 2026 midterms. Spanberger continues to perform strongly among women, Black voters, and independents.
Abigail Spanberger Leads Virginia Governor’s Race — Quick Looks
- Suffolk University poll shows Spanberger at 52%, Earle-Sears at 43%.
- Early voting in Virginia began on September 19; 25% of votes already cast.
- Spanberger leads among women, Black voters, and independents.
- Election Day is set for November 4, 2025.
- Spanberger has led in every major poll since early fall.
- Earle-Sears would become Virginia’s first female governor if elected.
- Spanberger is a former CIA officer and three-term congresswoman.
- Virginia’s race is seen as a national political bellwether.
Deep Look
Spanberger Maintains Strong Lead in Virginia Governor’s Race, Poll Shows
Democrat Abigail Spanberger holds a solid nine-point lead over Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears in Virginia’s closely watched gubernatorial contest, according to a new Suffolk University poll released October 23. The results arrive less than two weeks before Election Day and highlight the national significance of Virginia’s off-year election.
Spanberger, a former CIA officer and three-term U.S. Representative from Virginia’s 7th Congressional District, captured 52% support among likely voters surveyed between October 19 and 22. Her Republican opponent, Winsome Earle-Sears, drew 43% support, with 3% of respondents remaining undecided. The poll, which surveyed 500 likely voters, has a margin of error of 4.4 percentage points.
That statistical range indicates that while the race could technically narrow, Spanberger’s consistent lead across several polls suggests a real and stable advantage. She held a 10-point lead in a September Emerson College poll and has not trailed in any major survey this election season.
Virginia, often viewed as a reliable indicator of the national political mood, is once again playing the role of bellwether. Its gubernatorial elections, held the year after a presidential vote, have historically swung against the sitting president’s party. The only recent exception was in 2013, when Democrat Terry McAuliffe won during Barack Obama’s second term.
This year, Virginia’s contest is seen as an early referendum on Republican momentum under President Donald Trump and could preview the political landscape ahead of the 2026 congressional midterms. With Republicans currently holding a narrow majority in Congress, the stakes are high.
Spanberger has positioned herself as a pragmatic centrist throughout the race. During her time in Congress, she was known for her bipartisan approach and appeal to moderate and independent voters. Her background in intelligence and national security has also been central to her campaign message.
She has been especially successful among key demographics. According to the Suffolk poll, 57% of women voters back Spanberger, compared to just 38% for Earle-Sears. Among Black voters, Spanberger commands an overwhelming 87% to 9% advantage, a staggering 78-point lead that further solidifies her base.
Earle-Sears, a Marine Corps veteran and the first Black woman to serve as Virginia’s lieutenant governor, has attempted to rally conservative voters by aligning with Republican values on education, economic freedom, and family. She was elected alongside current Governor Glenn Youngkin in 2021 and has been campaigning on continuing his legacy of conservative governance.
Despite Earle-Sears’ historic candidacy, her appeal appears limited among independents and moderate voters, where Spanberger holds a clear edge. The poll results suggest the former congresswoman’s message of stability, affordability, and bipartisan leadership is resonating.
Whoever wins on November 4 will make history as Virginia’s first female governor. Both candidates are breaking gender barriers, but the race has also exposed deep divides in voter priorities and political direction.
Early voting began on September 19, and the poll indicates that nearly one in four voters has already cast their ballot. With less than two weeks to go, the final phase of the campaign will be critical for both candidates.
Governor Glenn Youngkin, a Republican, is completing his single four-year term. Virginia law prohibits governors from serving consecutive terms, meaning this election is an open-seat race. His absence from the ballot has created space for new political voices and visions to emerge.
As national interest in the Virginia race grows, party leaders from both sides are keeping a close eye on turnout and messaging strategies. If Spanberger maintains her lead and wins in November, Democrats are likely to claim a renewed mandate—and Republicans may be forced to recalibrate ahead of 2026.
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