AP-NORC Poll: Republican Optimism Plummets After Kirk Assassination/ Newslooks/ WASHINGTON/ J. Mansour/ Morning Edition/ A new AP-NORC poll shows a steep drop in Republicans’ confidence about the country’s direction following the assassination of Charlie Kirk. Rising political violence, economic pressures, and deepening national division are fueling growing pessimism. Younger Republicans and GOP women are especially disillusioned.
New Poll Shows GOP Confidence in Nation Drops – Quick Looks
- AP-NORC poll finds only 50% of Republicans feel U.S. is on right track.
- That number is down from 70% in June, with sharper declines among GOP women and young conservatives.
- Overall, only 25% of Americans think the country is headed in the right direction.
- The assassination of conservative activist Charlie Kirk is a major factor in the mood shift.
- Political violence on both sides has increased concern among voters.
- GOP respondents cite inflation, crime, immigration, and social division as top concerns.
- Republican women and under-45 voters are driving much of the pessimism.
- Trump blames “radical left,” hints at classifying progressive groups as domestic threats.
- Broader dissatisfaction includes economic hardship and fraying of social norms.
- The poll surveyed 1,183 adults with a margin of error of ±3.8%.
Deep Look: New Poll Reveals Sharp GOP Decline in Optimism Amid Violence, Economic Strains
DES MOINES, Iowa — A new nationwide poll from the Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research reveals a dramatic collapse in optimism among Republicans about the country’s future, with the assassination of conservative figure Charlie Kirk and broader societal tensions playing key roles in the sentiment shift.
The survey, conducted September 11–15, finds that only half of Republicans now believe the country is headed in the right direction — a sharp drop from 70% just three months ago. The overall national confidence also dropped, with only 25% of all U.S. adults saying things are moving in the right direction, down from 40% in June.
The most striking changes are among Republican women and conservatives under 45, both of whom report significantly increased concern about the nation’s trajectory.
Political Violence and Social Unrest Drive Concern
The poll comes in the wake of a string of politically charged violent incidents. The most recent — and most cited by Republican respondents — was the assassination of Charlie Kirk, the founder of Turning Point USA, during a public appearance at Utah Valley University on September 10. Kirk, known for mobilizing young conservatives, was 31.
Just months earlier, prominent Democratic state lawmaker Melissa Hortman and her husband were shot and killed in Minnesota in what was labeled a politically motivated attack. Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro also survived a suspected arson attack on the governor’s mansion in April during Passover.
These events are reinforcing a sense of unease for many, including voters who previously felt hopeful about Trump’s return to office.
“Two weeks ago, I wouldn’t have mentioned political violence as a main issue,” said Chris Bahr, a 42-year-old Republican from suburban Houston. “Now it’s front of mind. This isn’t just division — it’s deadly now.”
Trump, for his part, has blamed the “radical left” for Kirk’s death, and administration officials have floated responses ranging from racketeering investigations to revoking tax-exempt status for certain progressive organizations.
A Generational and Gendered Shift
The drop in Republican optimism is particularly steep among younger conservatives and GOP women.
Among Republicans under 45, 61% now say the country is headed in the wrong direction — a spike of 30 percentage points since June.
Among Republican women, 75% now say the U.S. is off-course, up from just 27% in June. By contrast, 56% of Republican men feel the same — still a significant jump, but not as sharp.
The reasons vary, but most touch on a mix of sociopolitical unrest, economic frustration, and cultural division.
“I’m trying to move forward in my career, provide for my family, but prices are insane and we’re more divided than ever,” said Mustafa Robinson, a truck driver and father of three from Pennsylvania. “Now we’re killing each other over politics?”
The Economy and Social Fabric Under Strain
While violence is a key trigger for the GOP mood swing, it’s not the only factor.
Respondents also highlighted ongoing concerns over inflation, job instability, immigration, and crime. Some said these issues were already affecting their daily lives, even before recent acts of political violence pushed them further into despair.
Joclyn Yurchak, a 55-year-old warehouse worker in northeast Pennsylvania, says job opportunities are drying up and her commute has gotten longer. She’s also deeply worried about illegal immigration and the drug trade.
“It’s not just politics — it’s crime, drugs, disrespect. Everything’s falling apart,” she said. “People just don’t respect one another anymore.”
Some respondents noted that Trump’s policies are starting to have an impact, but said broader societal problems are moving faster than government solutions.
Pessimism Reaches Beyond Politics
For many, the mood is less about specific party allegiance and more about a feeling that the country is fundamentally fractured.
“We’re not on the same page anymore,” said Jeremy Gieske, a 47-year-old Republican from Minnesota. “It’s like a social collapse. Kirk’s killing might be the spark that sets off a firestorm.”
His comments reflect a widespread anxiety seen across party lines in previous polls. Last year, 42% of Americans told AP-NORC they were “extremely” or “very” concerned about political violence in the aftermath of national elections.
This month’s survey confirms that those fears have only grown, and that optimism has shrunk even among those whose party is currently in power.
Poll Details
The AP-NORC survey interviewed 1,183 U.S. adults from September 11–15 via the AmeriSpeak Panel, a probability-based panel designed to reflect the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error is ±3.8 percentage points.
The poll captures not just reactions to recent violence, but also the deeper anxieties over the country’s economic health, social unity, and institutional trust — painting a complex portrait of an America still grappling with uncertainty, even amid political change.
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