AP-NORC Poll: Trump Loses Support Sharply Among AAPI Voters Over Tariffs/ Newslooks/ WASHINGTON/ J. Mansour/ Morning Edition/ A new AAPI Data/AP-NORC poll finds a growing share of Asian American, Native Hawaiian, and Pacific Islander (AAPI) adults view President Trump unfavorably, citing concerns over inflation and tariffs. Independent AAPI voters are particularly critical, with unfavorable opinions jumping by 20 percentage points. Many fear rising costs and minimal economic benefit from Trump’s trade policies.
Trump’s Falling Favorability with AAPI Voters – Quick Looks
- 71% of AAPI adults now hold an unfavorable view of Trump, up from 60% in December
- Unfavorable views among AAPI independents rose nearly 20 points since last year
- 8 in 10 AAPI adults expect Trump’s tariffs to raise consumer prices
- Only 2 in 10 believe tariffs will lead to more U.S. jobs
- Inflation hit a 4-month high in June, partly due to tariffs
- Many AAPI voters feel economic risks are outweighing potential benefits
- Concerns about a recession are higher among AAPI adults than the national average
- Some independents rejected both major parties in 2024, voting third-party
- Hawaii and Oregon residents express strong criticism of Trump’s trade policy
- Trump maintains that tariffs are essential to fixing trade imbalances
Deep Look
Trump’s Tariff Policies Fuel Decline in Support Among AAPI Voters
WASHINGTON — President Donald Trump is facing mounting disapproval among Asian American, Native Hawaiian, and Pacific Islander (AAPI) adults, according to a newly released poll by AAPI Data and The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research. The decline is particularly steep among independent AAPI voters, a key demographic showing increasing unease over the economic impact of Trump’s trade strategies and inflation.
The percentage of AAPI adults with an unfavorable opinion of Trump jumped to 71% in July, up from 60% in December 2024. Among independents in this group, 7 in 10 now express unfavorable views, a nearly 20-point increase that signals growing dissatisfaction within a voting bloc that has historically leaned away from Trump but showed slight movement toward him in the 2024 election.
Tariff Anxiety, Inflation, and Economic Fallout
A central factor behind the erosion of support appears to be Trump’s aggressive tariff agenda. About 80% of AAPI adults surveyed believe these tariffs will raise prices on consumer goods, while only 40% think they will boost American manufacturing, and just 20% believe the policies will create more U.S. jobs.
For many, the costs are already hitting home. Michael Ida, a 56-year-old calculus teacher in Hawaii, worries about the broader fallout.
“There’s a lot of collateral damage and fallout that’s hurting a lot of people,” said Ida, pointing to budget cuts, especially in education, and the rising cost of goods in his home state.
Localized Economic Pressure in Island and Immigrant Communities
AAPI communities, especially in geographically isolated or import-heavy regions like Hawaii, feel the effects of price surges more acutely.
“Everything comes on a ship or a plane,” Ida noted. “We’re especially vulnerable to prices rising and disruptions in the supply chain.”
This economic strain has sparked deeper anxiety: 65% of AAPI adults say they’re “extremely” or “very” concerned about a potential U.S. recession, compared to 53% of U.S. adults overall. For these voters, Trump’s economic policies are creating more worry than confidence.
Independents Move Further Away from Trump
Although not a traditionally pro-Trump group, AAPI voters showed some movement toward him in 2024, with English-speaking voters increasing support to around one-third—up from 29% in 2020. But now that support appears to be unraveling, especially among independents who once considered him a viable alternative.
Shopan Hafiz, a 39-year-old engineer from Oregon, voiced strong opposition to Trump’s policies. “All the tariffs will ultimately be paid by U.S. nationals,” Hafiz said. “Inflation is going to get worse.”
Both Hafiz and Ida voted for Libertarian candidate Chase Oliver in 2024, citing frustration with both major parties. Ida described the political landscape as polarized, with neither Democrats nor Republicans offering practical solutions.
Tariffs Driving Up Costs, Contributing to Inflation
Their concerns are echoed in national data. Inflation rose to 2.7% in June, the highest since February, with much of the increase attributed to tariff-related price hikes on essentials like food and appliances. Prices rose 0.3% from May to June, up from just 0.1% the previous month, the Labor Department reported.
Trump’s administration has leaned into tariffs as a tool to correct trade imbalances, with new levies on goods from Japan, South Korea, Indonesia, and the Philippines set to take effect August 1. However, critics say the costs of these policies are being passed directly onto consumers.
A Disconnect Between Economic Expectations and Reality
Despite Trump’s claims that tariffs will bring factories back to the U.S., many AAPI voters remain skeptical. Karthick Ramakrishnan, executive director of AAPI Data, says the results show a disconnect between campaign promises and actual outcomes.
“They are not seeing big economic benefits pan out,” he said. “Quite the contrary—they are seeing big economic risks on the horizon.”
This perception of risk has undermined the slight gains Trump made with AAPI voters in recent years. While some shifted toward him in 2024 due to perceived Democratic shortcomings on inflation and international policy, the follow-through appears lacking.
Voter Outlook Heading into 2026
As Trump’s approval among AAPI adults declines, particularly among independents, the implications for the 2026 midterms and beyond could be significant. Though AAPI voters make up just 7% of the U.S. population, according to Pew Research Center, they are one of the fastest-growing and most civically active demographic groups—especially in swing states like Nevada, Georgia, and Arizona.
With economic anxieties mounting and political alternatives being weighed, the coming years will likely test Trump’s ability to regain trust among AAPI voters, or whether they continue their drift toward third-party options or back to the Democratic Party.
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