Beef Prices Hit Record Highs Amid Drought and Tariffs/ Newslooks/ WASHINGTON/ J. Mansour/ Morning Edition/ Beef prices in the U.S. have reached record highs, with ground beef averaging $6.12 per pound in June. A shrinking cattle herd, foreign disease outbreaks, and Trump-era tariffs are key drivers. Experts warn that prices are unlikely to drop anytime soon, even after grilling season ends.
Beef Price Surge Quick Looks
- Ground Beef Prices: Up 12% from last year, hitting $6.12 per pound
- Steak Costs: Now average $11.49 per pound, an 8% increase
- Shrinking Herd: U.S. cattle numbers down to 1951 levels
- Parasite Threat: Screwworm outbreak in Mexico halts imports
- Trade Tariffs: Lean beef imports from Brazil may face 50% tariff
- Breeding Trends: Ranchers selling cows now for high prices, hurting future supply
- Grain Prices: Lower due to tariff-driven corn export declines
- Consumer Shift: Americans still favor beef over chicken and pork
- Long-Term Outlook: Relief unlikely until at least late 2027
- Grilling Season Effect: Demand remains strong, supporting price strength
Beef Prices Hit Record Highs Amid Drought and Tariffs
Deep Look
OMAHA, Nebraska – July 17, 2025 — U.S. beef lovers are feeling the heat far beyond their grills this summer. Beef prices have skyrocketed to all-time highs, fueled by a tightening supply of cattle, international threats to imports, and the ripple effects of U.S. trade policy under the Trump administration.
According to the latest data, the average price of ground beef rose to $6.12 per pound in June, a staggering 12% increase year-over-year. The cost of uncooked steaks followed suit, climbing 8% to $11.49 per pound. While inflation in food categories has been widespread in recent years, beef prices are soaring largely due to structural supply issues in the cattle industry.
A Shrinking National Herd
The U.S. cattle population has steadily declined for decades. As of January 2025, the U.S. had 86.7 million cattle and calves, the lowest level since 1951, per the USDA. Despite improvements in breeding that have yielded larger cattle per head, the overall reduction in herd size has limited the nation’s ability to meet demand.
The decline accelerated after a prolonged drought that began in 2020, which scorched pastures and increased feed costs. Pressured by high input costs, many ranchers culled breeding females to manage financial losses—decisions that now haunt the industry as calf births dwindle.
“Ranchers are facing a tough decision,” said David Anderson, a livestock economist at Texas A&M. “Sell for record-high prices now, or breed for the future. Right now, most are choosing cash over calves.”
The Screwworm Setback
Adding to the supply stress is the reemergence of the New World screwworm fly in Mexico, a parasite that infects livestock with flesh-eating larvae. In response, the U.S. halted all cattle imports from Mexico—cutting off roughly 4% of cattle used in U.S. beef production.
The economic risk is significant. If the parasite spreads north, particularly into Texas, it could decimate herds and recreate conditions seen before the pest was eradicated decades ago.
“This isn’t just a nuisance—it’s an economic threat,” said Bernt Nelson of the American Farm Bureau.
Tariff Turmoil
President Donald Trump’s renewed trade tariffs could further exacerbate the problem. The U.S. imports over 4 million pounds of lean beef annually—key for mixing with fattier domestic meat to make ground beef blends.
While Australia and New Zealand face a 10% tariff, Brazil could see tariffs as high as 50%, potentially choking off a major source of lean trimmings. The U.S. beef supply chain is ill-equipped to replace this loss quickly.
“The U.S. doesn’t produce enough lean beef,” said Nelson. “It’s not just about quantity—it’s about the right fat-to-lean mix that consumers expect.”
Relief Not on the Horizon
Despite a seasonal drop in beef prices expected after summer, experts warn the decline will be modest at best. Demand remains robust, especially for burgers and steaks, and substitution toward poultry or pork has not yet meaningfully materialized.
There are signs of hope. Drought conditions have eased in some regions, and grain prices have fallen due to lower global corn exports, potentially improving feed affordability. Yet high interest rates and the up-front costs of rebuilding herds make expansion a tall order.
Even if ranchers begin herd rebuilding this fall, it will take at least two years before the increased supply hits grocery stores. And young ranchers hoping to expand face stiff barriers: 25 bred heifers could cost over $100,000 at auction—a steep price in today’s credit market.
“Unless something drastic changes, beef prices are going to stay elevated for the foreseeable future,” Nelson said.
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