Black Friday Faces Price Pressure and Consumer Caution/ Newslooks/ WASHINGTON/ J. Mansour/ Morning Edition/ Black Friday no longer carries its frenzied midnight rushes, but retailers still count on it to kick off the holiday season. Amid rising inflation and economic uncertainty, consumers are more price-conscious yet still willing to splurge on key occasions. Retailers hope for a “halo effect” to drive in-store and online sales.
Black Friday Retail Forecast Quick Looks
- Black Friday remains the top in-store shopping day of the year
- Online deals and early sales have changed traditional shopping habits
- Consumers remain cautious amid inflation and weak economic indicators
- Analysts say a “holiday halo effect” could boost seasonal spending
- Tariffs under Trump raised prices on toys, home goods, and imports
- 83% of toys saw price hikes of at least 5% in September
- Mall of America reports higher-than-pre-pandemic foot traffic
- Adobe Analytics shows online spending rose 7.5% YoY in early November
- Cyber Monday expected to bring steepest discounts on apparel, tech
- Mastercard predicts 3.6% growth in total holiday retail sales
Deep Look: Retailers Rely on Holiday Halo Effect to Lift Black Friday Sales Amid Price Sensitivity
NEW YORK — Black Friday may have lost its midnight mall madness, but it remains the single most important day for brick-and-mortar retail traffic — and U.S. stores are watching closely to see if this year’s sales benefit from a broader holiday halo effect.
Gone are the brawls over flat-screen TVs and doorbuster toys, replaced by weeks-long sales cycles and online convenience. Still, with economic signals mixed, shoppers are expected to show up — just more selectively.
Consumer Confidence Falters, But Spending Continues
According to The Conference Board, consumer confidence dipped in November, impacted by lingering inflation, job market uncertainty, and the recent government shutdown. Despite the mood, retail analysts and executives note that consumers remain eager to spend on meaningful events, including the holiday season.
“Consumers have been saying the economy is terrible while continuing to spend for years now,” said Bill Adams, Chief Economist at Comerica Bank. “But business surveys also report consumers are being more sensitive to prices and selective in spending.”
This cautious optimism is what retailers are banking on to salvage strong year-end earnings, even as pressure mounts from price-sensitive shoppers.
Trump-Era Tariffs Drive Up Prices
Retailers also had to navigate complications stemming from President Donald Trump’s tariffs on imported goods, especially from China. Companies scrambled to accelerate shipments or absorb import taxes to avoid passing on higher costs to customers.
Market research firm Circana found that 40% of general merchandise saw price increases of at least 5% in September, compared to earlier in the year. Hardest hit categories included:
- Toys: 83% saw prices rise by 5% or more
- Baby gear, housewares, and sports equipment also surged in cost
- Toy Association noted that nearly 80% of toys sold in the U.S. are sourced from China
Despite these pricing challenges, analysts note that consumer demand remains solid, particularly for products tied to emotional or seasonal milestones.
Mall Traffic and Online Sales Show Strength
At Mall of America in Bloomington, Minnesota — one of the largest retail centers in the country — officials report that foot traffic in recent weeks has exceeded pre-pandemic levels from 2019.
“We’re seeing a very positive start to the holiday season,” said Jill Renslow, the mall’s chief business development and marketing officer. “The last few Saturdays in November have been very strong.”
The online shopping front also shows promise. Between November 1 and 23, U.S. consumers spent $79.7 billion online, a 7.5% increase from last year, according to Adobe Analytics — outperforming the platform’s initial projection of 5.3% growth.
Spending Outlook: Black Friday, Cyber Monday, and Beyond
Mastercard SpendingPulse projects a 3.6% increase in total U.S. holiday sales from November 1 to December 24. While slightly below last year’s 4.1% growth, analysts say the momentum is surprisingly resilient, given the broader economic climate.
“Clearly, there’s uncertainty,” said Michelle Meyer, Chief Economist at Mastercard. “But at the moment, it doesn’t seem like it’s changing how [consumers] are showing up for this season.”
According to Adobe, discount hunters can expect the best Black Friday online deals on:
- Toys
- Appliances
- Televisions
Meanwhile, Cyber Monday will offer the deepest discounts on apparel and computers. Apparel markdowns are projected to peak at 25% off MSRP, up from an average of 12.2% earlier in the month.
Final Takeaway: Holiday Optimism Amid Price Pressure
Even with economic caution and the evolving nature of Black Friday, retailers remain hopeful that seasonal enthusiasm will win out. Early signs from malls and online platforms suggest a steady flow of shoppers, both physical and digital, ready to spend — as long as the deals feel worthwhile.
The 2025 holiday season is shaping up to be a test of consumer resolve, retailer flexibility, and the power of the emotional pull of holiday shopping, even in an era of inflation, tariffs, and uncertainty.
You must Register or Login to post a comment.