EU Urged to Boost Defense Amid Russia Threat

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EU Urged to Boost Defense Amid Russia Threat \ Newslooks \ Washington DC \ Mary Sidiqi \ Evening Edition \ Danish PM Mette Frederiksen warns that Russia may pose a serious security threat to the EU by 2030. She urges urgent investment in European and Ukrainian defense industries. NATO’s spending goals and the EU’s Readiness 2030 strategy face challenges in political will and financing.

Quick Looks

Denmark’s PM stresses urgency of defense buildup by 2030
NATO urges members to commit 5% GDP on defense by 2035
EU unveils €150B loan program to bolster readiness
Ukraine’s arms industry seen as vital and cost-effective
Industry needs long-term orders to scale up production
EU nations struggle to meet defense investment benchmarks
Cybersecurity, artillery, missile defense named spending priorities
Bureaucratic inertia and fear of risk slow progress

Deep Look

In a stark and urgent address to the European Parliament, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen issued a powerful warning: Russia could pose a credible, existential threat to the European Union by the end of the decade. As Denmark assumes the rotating presidency of the EU, Frederiksen called for a fundamental shift in Europe’s defense posture, arguing that both the EU and Ukraine must scale up their military production and strategic readiness within five years—well before 2030.

“Strengthening Europe’s defense industry is an absolute top priority,” she stated. “Never, ever should we allow Europe to be in a position again where we cannot defend ourselves.” Her words resonated through Strasbourg’s halls, reflecting not only Denmark’s urgency but a broader anxiety gripping the continent.

Reckoning with the Past, Preparing for the Future

Frederiksen candidly admitted that Europe’s post-Cold War complacency was a critical mistake. Defense budgets across the continent were slashed throughout the 1990s and 2000s as the EU embraced peacetime prosperity. But with Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine now in its fourth year, that era of security is over.

NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte echoed similar sentiments, stating that Europe is no longer at peace—even if it’s not officially at war. Russian cyberattacks, sabotage campaigns, and disinformation efforts continue to destabilize the region, suggesting that the Kremlin’s ambitions extend far beyond Ukraine.

With President Vladimir Putin emboldened by the West’s slow-moving response, there is rising concern among EU and NATO leaders that Moscow could attempt to test the alliance’s resolve by targeting a smaller or more vulnerable NATO member, forcing the invocation of Article 5—the collective defense clause that underpins NATO’s existence.

The Reality of NATO’s Ambitions

At a landmark NATO summit last month, the alliance’s 32 members endorsed a dramatic new defense investment pledge: spend 5% of GDP annually on defense-related expenditures by 2035. The aim is to modernize forces, maintain deterrence, and meet collective obligations in a world where American strategic priorities are shifting toward the Indo-Pacific and Middle East.

But there is a significant gap between the ambition and its feasibility. Spain, for instance, last year spent only 1.28% of GDP on defense and labeled the 5% goal “unreasonable.” France and Italy, two of Europe’s largest economies, are mired in budget constraints and sluggish economic growth. Belgium has voiced doubt over whether it can meet the target, and Slovenia is contemplating a referendum on military spending. Across the board, domestic political realities clash with international security imperatives.

Europe’s Homegrown Plan: Readiness 2030

In response, the European Commission has launched the Readiness 2030 initiative—a comprehensive security and defense strategy centered around a proposed €150 billion ($176 billion) loan fund. The goal is to fill potential gaps left by a receding U.S. security umbrella and increase Europe’s self-sufficiency in defense capabilities.

The fund would finance joint acquisitions of critical technologies, including air and missile defense systems, artillery, drones, cyber warfare tools, ammunition stockpiles, and strategic infrastructure like refueling and transport systems. Countries both within and outside the EU, including Ukraine and the UK, would be eligible to participate.

As part of the broader defense overhaul, 15 EU countries were also allowed to invoke a “national escape clause,” giving them temporary leeway from the EU’s strict debt rules to boost military spending without risking financial penalties.

The Ukraine Factor: Fast, Cheap, Underutilized

A key pillar of the Readiness 2030 vision is investment in Ukraine’s domestic defense industry, which has proven faster and more cost-effective than many European counterparts. Ukrainian officials estimate that up to 40% of their industrial capacity remains underutilized and could be rapidly scaled if Europe provides adequate funding and logistics support.

Ukraine produces ammunition, drones, and military equipment at a fraction of the EU’s cost. Investing in Ukrainian production not only strengthens the country’s ability to repel Russian forces but also relieves production bottlenecks currently seen across the EU.

Yet despite the promise, political will is faltering. Danish Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen underscored the challenges, stating, “Things are not moving fast enough to be able to defend ourselves in five years. It’s a huge, huge challenge.”

Breaking the Mold: The Problem of Risk Aversion

Even as Europe recognizes the need for a wartime industrial posture, both governments and defense contractors remain locked in peacetime mentalities. Procurement cycles are slow. Decision-making is risk-averse. Companies are hesitant to invest in expanding production unless they are guaranteed long-term contracts, which few governments are currently willing to offer.

“You cannot expect industry to invest in production capacity if you don’t have long-term orders,” explained Joachim Finkielman, head of Danish Defense and Security Industries. “If you need to build new factories or hire large workforces, you need commitments that stretch five to ten years.”

One of the most glaring examples is the shortage of 155mm artillery shells. Despite their high demand in Ukraine and NATO exercises, current contracts only cover short-term needs. Finkielman noted that meaningful investment won’t materialize until there’s assurance of a multi-year pipeline.

He also emphasized the importance of leadership from Europe’s major economies. “If governments and industries in Britain, France, Germany, and Italy start to move, the rest will follow.”

Strategic Stakes: More Than Just Numbers

The consequences of inaction are stark. If Europe fails to meet the 2030 deadline for self-reliant defense, it risks becoming a passive bystander in its own geopolitical neighborhood. The U.S. has signaled through multiple administrations—from Obama to Biden to Trump—that its focus is pivoting away from Europe. While NATO remains intact, Washington’s patience is thinning.

The EU’s credibility, autonomy, and security all depend on whether it can move from rhetoric to action. Defense readiness is no longer a matter of political preference—it’s a strategic necessity.

As Frederiksen concluded in her speech, “Never, ever should we allow Europe to be put in a position again where we cannot defend ourselves.” Whether Europe heeds that call may define the continent’s fate for decades to come.