Experts Warn FEMA, NOAA Cuts Risk Disaster as Storm Season Starts

31 May at 12:46 pm

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Experts Warn FEMA, NOAA Cuts Risk Disaster as Storm Season Starts/ Newslooks/ WASHINGTON/ J. Mansour/ Morning Edition/ As hurricane season kicks off, experts are warning that deep staffing and funding cuts at FEMA and NOAA could cripple the nation’s storm response. FEMA has lost a third of its full-time workforce, while NOAA faces critical under-staffing at local weather offices. Experts fear disaster readiness is dangerously diminished just as storms intensify.

FILE – Debris from destroyed homes and structures floats in a canal in Horseshoe Beach, Fla., Aug. 31, 2023, one day after the passage of Hurricane Idalia. (AP Photo/Rebecca Blackwell, File)

Federal Hurricane Cuts: Quick Looks

Busy Hurricane Season Begins: Forecasts warn of intense activity, but disaster agencies are short-staffed
FEMA Slashed: 2,000 full-time jobs lost since Trump took office; training and travel cut
Leadership Concerns: FEMA led by acting chief with no disaster experience
State Burden Increases: FEMA shifting disaster costs and responsibilities to states
Training Gutted: Emergency management training programs and conferences canceled
NOAA Shrinks Nationwide: 20% vacancy in many local weather offices critical to storm warnings
Hurricane Center Spared—for Now: Miami-based center remains fully staffed, adds AI forecasting
Balloon Data Lost: Fewer weather balloons launched due to staffing, risking forecast accuracy
Experts Alarmed: Comparisons to Hurricane Katrina failures spark concern over preparedness
Calls for Action: Academics, ex-officials warn that public safety is at stake

FILE – Connor Hughes of Lithia, Fla., moves in deep floodwaters from Hurricane Milton along the Alafia River, Oct. 11, 2024, in Lithia, Fla. (AP Photo/Chris O’Meara, File)

Deep Look: Hurricane Season Begins as Cuts to FEMA and NOAA Raise Alarm

By Seth Borenstein & Gabriela Aoun Angueira | AP – May 31, 2025

WASHINGTON, D.C. — As the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season officially begins Sunday, experts across the disaster preparedness landscape are voicing deep concern: The very agencies tasked with protecting the public — FEMA and NOAA — are weakened by sweeping federal cuts and staff reductions under the Trump administration.

With a forecast calling for an above-average number of hurricanes, seasoned emergency managers say the nation is ill-prepared to respond to a major storm. From slashed funding and gutted training programs to leadership voids and dangerous under-staffing, the warnings echo grimly familiar failures like those seen during Hurricane Katrina two decades ago.

“My nightmare is a catastrophic hurricane hitting while our disaster response system is unraveling,” said Dr. Susan Cutter, director of the Hazards and Vulnerability Research Institute at the University of South Carolina. “People will die.”

FEMA Gutted: Workforce and Experience Lost

Since President Donald Trump took office, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) has lost around 2,000 full-time employees — a staggering one-third of its workforce. Many of those gone were experienced managers who knew how to navigate federal aid systems and coordinate multi-state responses to large-scale disasters.

“The loss of experience — that institutional memory — is critical,” said Samantha Montano, an emergency management professor. “You can’t just replace that with PowerPoints.”

The agency is now led by acting chief David Richardson, a former Marine Corps officer with no disaster management background. FEMA’s approach has shifted toward pushing responsibility to states, according to internal memos and public statements — a move critics say many states are unprepared to absorb.

Even essential disaster training programs have been canceled or moved online, and attendance at key hurricane conferences has been restricted, diminishing collaboration and preparation.

FEMA Resilience Programs Also Cut

Preventative programs — such as community resilience planning — are also suffering. Dr. Lori Peek of the University of Colorado’s Natural Hazards Center emphasized these efforts save lives and money.

“For every dollar spent on making a community more disaster-resistant, you save $13 in future damage,” she said.

FEMA insists it’s still ready. “We’re shifting to a leaner, state-empowering model,” said Geoff Harbaugh, an associate FEMA administrator. But former FEMA director Craig Fugate isn’t reassured: “It feels like 2005 again — inexperienced leadership, underfunded departments, and storm risks rising.”

States Left in the Dark

Several disaster declarations were delayed or partially denied this spring, even as storms loomed. State emergency managers say they’re being told to expect less federal help — and no clear guidance on what support will be available.

“States haven’t budgeted to cover FEMA’s responsibilities,” said Bryan Koon, former Florida emergency chief. “The uncertainty is our biggest problem right now.”

Wealthier states like Florida and Texas may manage. But poorer states, especially those in frequent storm paths, are most vulnerable.

“We’ve relied on FEMA for decades,” said Jeannette Sutton, a professor of disaster communications. “Who steps in now?”

NOAA Understaffed, But Hurricane Center Holds On

At NOAA, the situation is only slightly better. The National Hurricane Center in Miami remains fully staffed and plans to debut new artificial intelligence forecasting tools this year. But across NOAA’s 121 local weather offices, staffing shortages are severe — with more than 20% of positions unfilled in many offices.

These regional centers are critical: They translate hurricane forecasts into clear, local action plans and alerts. Without them, national warnings lose their effectiveness on the ground.

“It should be all hands on deck — but we’re being hollowed out,” said former NWS director Louis Uccellini.

Even the once-reliable weather balloon launches — vital for understanding hurricane steering currents — are being reduced. Some offices have cut launches from twice daily to once a day.

That matters. “Fewer balloons means less accurate data, and that means less accurate hurricane forecasts,” warned Jeff Masters, a meteorologist and contributor at Yale Climate Connections.

Artificial Intelligence: A Silver Lining?

Despite the challenges, hurricane forecasters at NOAA are hopeful that new AI-assisted forecasting models will partially offset the data and staffing shortages. AI has shown early promise in boosting accuracy, particularly for storm track predictions, according to Hurricane Center Director Michael Brennan.

“Our tools are better than ever,” added Ken Graham, head of the National Weather Service. “But tools are only as good as the people and data behind them.”

Conclusion: Will the Cuts Cost Lives?

Experts warn that the cuts to FEMA and NOAA are not just bureaucratic changes — they have real-world consequences for millions living in hurricane-prone regions.

Whether it’s delayed warnings, inadequate response coordination, or fewer shelters ready to open, the cracks in the system may only be visible when it’s too late.