GOP Scrambles over Virginia Governor Race, Winsome Sears Struggles/ Newslooks/ WASHINGTON/ J. Mansour/ Morning Edition/ Top Republicans are losing confidence in Winsome Sears’ gubernatorial bid as poor fundraising and weak polling data signal likely defeat. Party leaders now question how much more to invest in the struggling Virginia race amid concerns it could damage down-ballot prospects. Attorney General Jason Miyares is emerging as the GOP’s best hope to salvage a statewide win in an otherwise grim 2025 election cycle.
Virginia Governor’s Race Quick Looks
- Winsome Sears trails in polls and funding
- Spanberger holds 3-to-1 cash advantage over Sears
- Republicans reevaluate investment in losing race
- Trump has not endorsed Sears despite meeting
- Jason Miyares seen as GOP’s best statewide bet
- Youngkin criticized for weak party succession planning
- RGA hesitant to commit more than initial $500K
- Private polling shows Spanberger leading outside margin of error
- Internal GOP frustration mounting over campaign mismanagement
- GOP shifts focus to NJ and 2026 governor races
Deep Look: Virginia GOP Faces Internal Chaos as Governor’s Race Slips Away
WASHINGTON — As the 2025 Virginia gubernatorial race enters a critical phase, panic is setting in among Republican leaders across the country. With Lt. Gov. Winsome Sears floundering in both polling and fundraising, key GOP strategists are confronting an uncomfortable question: Is it worth continuing to pour resources into what’s increasingly seen as a losing battle?
At this week’s Republican Governors Association (RGA) gathering in Aspen, Colorado, the mood was sober. While no official admitted defeat outright, several top Republicans quietly acknowledged that their enthusiasm — and financial support — for Sears is dwindling. So far, the RGA has contributed $500,000, a far cry from the $10.7 million it poured into Glenn Youngkin’s successful 2021 campaign.
The contrast underscores just how weak Sears’ candidacy has become. Internal party polling shows Democrat Abigail Spanberger leading Sears by margins that range from mid-single digits to double digits, depending on the source. Her $15.2 million war chest dwarfs Sears’ $4.5 million, adding to the sense of inevitability.
GOP Frustrated by Candidate’s Inactivity
Multiple party officials have expressed frustration with Sears’ lackluster campaigning and reluctance to fundraise. She’s failed to make critical calls to top Virginia donors and hasn’t engaged influential Republicans like Trump campaign co-manager Chris LaCivita. Even her long-anticipated endorsement from Donald Trump remains elusive — a holdout many attribute to Sears’ past criticisms of the former president.
The lack of movement from Trump hasn’t gone unnoticed. Sears met with him privately earlier this year at the White House, but no endorsement has followed, and party insiders see that as a significant obstacle to building Republican voter enthusiasm.
Youngkin’s Exit Plan Raises Eyebrows
Much of the blame for the party’s predicament is being directed at Governor Glenn Youngkin, who’s term-limited and seen as grooming himself for a 2028 presidential bid. Critics say he effectively cleared the path for Sears’ nomination despite concerns about her ability to run a statewide campaign — and then damaged the party further by undercutting John Reid, her successor as lieutenant governor, over an unrelated scandal.
Youngkin has not yet personally financed Sears’ campaign or committed large donations from his PAC, despite earlier signs that he might intervene to bolster the ticket. His recent political activity — including appearances at elite donor events in Sun Valley and South Carolina — has only fueled perceptions that he’s prioritizing national aspirations over local responsibilities.
“He’s got to win something,” said Delegate Terry Kilgore, leader of the Virginia House GOP. “If this race goes badly, Youngkin leaves behind a fractured party.”
GOP Hedges Bets on Attorney General
Amid the disarray, Republicans are shifting focus to a candidate they see as their best hope: Attorney General Jason Miyares. Not only is Miyares running for re-election, but he’s also emerged as the financial powerhouse of the Republican ticket, holding more cash than both Sears and Reid combined.
Miyares wisely opted out of the governor’s race, citing the challenge of running under Trump’s shadow in a blue-leaning state. His campaign is seen as the GOP’s strongest and most disciplined, and many in the party view him as a future gubernatorial frontrunner for 2029.
“Jason has done better at fundraising, has more cash on hand and he’s a very good candidate,” said former state legislator Chris Saxman, echoing a view widely held in Richmond.
Even LaCivita, who hasn’t committed to Sears, has backed Miyares with fundraising events — a signal to donors that the party’s hopes may rest on his shoulders.
Strategic Retreat Already Underway
Given the bleak projections for Sears, Republican strategists are beginning a quiet political triage, focusing instead on protecting down-ballot races, including House of Delegates seats and the re-election of Miyares. One senior strategist compared the scenario to 2001, when Democrats swept the top two races but Republicans salvaged the attorney general’s office.
The GOP is particularly wary of sinking too much money into Sears’ campaign when 2026 promises 36 gubernatorial races across the country, many in competitive or Republican-leaning states. With limited resources, party leaders are eyeing a strategic retreat from Virginia and a pivot to New Jersey, where GOP candidate Jack Ciattarelli is viewed as more viable.
Democrats Still Cautious
Despite their apparent advantage, Democratic leaders in Virginia are not declaring victory just yet. While they lack the intense anti-Trump fervor that powered their base in 2017, they’re still motivated by national issues and a consistent edge in low-turnout elections. With an educated, high-engagement base in Northern Virginia and the suburbs, Democrats often outperform expectations in off-year contests.
Spanberger has kept her campaign focused and organized, allowing Republicans to spiral without giving them a target. Barring a dramatic shift in dynamics, political insiders believe she is on track to flip the governor’s mansion back to Democratic control.
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