Japan Balances U.S. Tariff Talks, China Outreach \ Newslooks \ Washington DC \ Mary Sidiqi \ Evening Edition \ As Japan negotiates with the U.S. over tariffs, it also deepens diplomatic outreach to China amid shifting global trade tensions. While maintaining its alliance with Washington, Japan is hedging against protectionism and uncertainty. Meanwhile, Beijing sees opportunity to improve ties amid its own tariff battle with the U.S.
Quick Looks
- Japan meets with U.S. officials over new tariffs, while engaging China diplomatically.
- PM Ishiba sends letter to Xi Jinping, delivered by ruling coalition partner.
- Japan-China Friendship delegation visits Beijing, amid warming signals from China.
- Trump’s 25% tariffs on Japanese autos take effect, sparking concern in Tokyo.
- Beijing seeks allies as U.S. tariffs intensify, extending olive branches to Tokyo.
- Historic tensions over wartime aggression still shadow Japan-China relations.
- Japan’s outreach seen as pragmatic hedging, not a strategic realignment.
- Competition continues in Southeast Asia, where both nations seek economic influence.
- Japan warns U.S. tariffs risk driving Asia closer to China.
Deep Look
As global trade dynamics shift dramatically under the second Trump administration, Japan is emerging as a critical player navigating the fault line between two economic giants: the United States and China. This delicate balancing act—marked by back-to-back diplomatic engagements with Washington and Beijing—has become a defining feature of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s early foreign policy, highlighting Tokyo’s effort to preserve both its economic stability and security partnerships amid intensifying geopolitical competition.
On one side, Japan faces mounting pressure from the Trump administration’s renewed protectionist agenda, including sweeping tariffs and calls for increased market access. On the other, it confronts the reality of deep economic interdependence with China, its largest trading partner and a historical rival with lingering scars from a brutal 20th-century conflict. For Tokyo, the challenge lies in defending national interests without alienating either power—or allowing itself to be caught in a zero-sum game between superpowers.
Last week, as Japan’s chief trade negotiator Ryosei Akazawa arrived in Washington for a second round of high-stakes tariff talks, a bipartisan delegation of Japanese lawmakers—members of the Japan-China Friendship Parliamentarians’ Union—wrapped up meetings in Beijing, signaling Tokyo’s intent to engage both sides of the trade divide. Days earlier, Tetsuo Saito, a senior leader from the Komeito Party, had hand-delivered a personal letter from Prime Minister Ishiba to Chinese President Xi Jinping, a rare and symbolically potent gesture amid growing global uncertainty.
Though the contents of the letter remain undisclosed, Japanese and Chinese officials confirmed that the correspondence addressed U.S. tariffs, regional security, and bilateral cooperation—highlighting how Tokyo is maneuvering diplomatically while Washington and Beijing escalate their economic confrontation.
This outreach comes just weeks after President Donald Trump imposed a 24% tariff on Japanese exports, including a 25% duty on steel, aluminum, and automobiles, as part of a broader trade strategy affecting nearly 90 countries. While the White House paused the blanket tariff rollout for negotiations, a 10% baseline duty remains active, casting a shadow over Japanese industries and testing the limits of Japan’s long-standing alliance with the United States.
“Japan won’t abandon its U.S. alliance—that’s the cornerstone of its security—but Trump’s tariffs have absolutely rattled Tokyo,” said Matthew Goodman, Director of Geoeconomics at the Council on Foreign Relations. “What we’re seeing is a pragmatic hedge.”
Indeed, hedging may be the best descriptor for Tokyo’s recent moves. Despite deep historical grievances, Japan is quietly exploring improved ties with China, not as a substitute for U.S. alignment, but as a contingency plan against rising economic nationalism in Washington. At the same time, Beijing is extending subtle olive branches. During the Komeito delegation’s visit in late April, Chinese officials reportedly described their own struggles with Trump’s tariffs, acknowledging they were “in trouble” and signaling a willingness to stabilize ties with Tokyo.
Though China stopped short of lifting its 2023 ban on Japanese seafood—imposed after Tokyo discharged treated wastewater from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant—it eased its rhetoric, and Chinese officials acknowledged progress in evaluating Japan’s environmental safety standards.
The symbolic thaw comes amid decades of unresolved animosity between the two nations, rooted in Japan’s early 20th-century military aggression, including the occupation of Manchuria, the Nanking Massacre, and brutal medical experiments on Chinese civilians. These wounds, inflamed by frequent denials or downplaying by Japanese conservatives, continue to cloud bilateral relations.
Yet under Prime Minister Ishiba, who has taken a less revisionist stance on wartime history than predecessors like Shinzo Abe, there is a perceived window for cautious diplomacy. Ishiba’s willingness to engage Xi on the sidelines of a regional summit, coupled with parliamentary visits to Beijing, indicates Tokyo’s readiness to temper historical tensions—even as it competes with China across Southeast Asia.
That competition is especially visible in Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, and Singapore, where both Japan and China are jockeying for economic influence. Trump’s tariffs have added a new dimension to this rivalry. Southeast Asian nations, deeply embedded in China’s supply chains but increasingly courted by the West to diversify, now face pressure to choose between competing trade regimes.
During recent visits to Vietnam and the Philippines, Ishiba pledged Japan’s support for multilateral trade systems, reaffirming Japan’s role as a regional counterweight to both Chinese dominance and American unpredictability. In earlier calls with Malaysian and Singaporean leaders, Ishiba voiced concern about U.S. tariffs and reiterated Japan’s commitment to free and open markets.
Meanwhile, Xi Jinping has made similar diplomatic rounds, including visits to Vietnam, Malaysia, and Cambodia, promising stronger ties and urging resistance to “external pressure”—a veiled critique of U.S. policies.
The contrast in messages is sharp. While China pitches partnership, the United States under Trump is perceived—rightly or wrongly—as issuing ultimatums. That perception was echoed by Itsunori Onodera, the ruling LDP’s policy chief, who warned at a Hudson Institute event that Trump’s trade war is fostering instability.
“There’s a danger that many Asian countries, feeling cornered by U.S. tariffs, might grow closer to China,” Onodera said. “That’s not an outcome Japan wants.”
In Washington, Ryosei Akazawa continues to push for resolution. He described the 25% auto tariffs as devastating to Japan’s auto industry and called for urgent progress. “We have to be thorough but fast,” he told reporters, noting Japan’s deep trade ties with both the U.S. and China.
Through all this, one thing is clear: Japan is not pivoting away from Washington, but it is increasingly determined to diversify its options, strengthen regional alliances, and manage its complex relationship with China. That’s not disloyalty—it’s survival.
In an era defined by volatility and shifting power balances, Tokyo is showing that strategic flexibility is now a necessity, not a luxury. How well it walks this tightrope may determine not just the future of Japan’s economy, but the broader architecture of stability in the Indo-Pacific.
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