Lula Threatens Tariffs as Trump Targets Brazil \ Newslooks \ Washington DC \ Mary Sidiqi \ Evening Edition \ Brazilian President Lula da Silva has threatened retaliatory tariffs if the U.S. imposes steep import taxes over Jair Bolsonaro’s ongoing criminal trial. Lula criticized Trump’s effort to interfere in Brazil’s judiciary, calling it a breach of diplomatic norms. Trump’s move risks sparking a trade war and may reshape Brazil’s domestic politics heading into next year’s elections.
Quick Looks
- Lula vows 50% reciprocal tariffs if U.S. imposes new trade penalties
- Trump targets Brazil over Bolsonaro’s criminal trial
- Brazil invokes reciprocity law passed earlier this year
- White House letter blasts Brazil’s judiciary over Bolsonaro case
- Trump’s move may derail trade negotiations, risk global South ties
- Lula orders diplomats to return Trump’s letter unopened
- Trump using 1977 emergency powers law to justify tariffs
- Brazil foreign ministry says talks now “up in the air”
- Analysts say move may help Lula politically, hurt Bolsonaro’s case
- Editorials and critics say Trump’s actions breach state diplomacy norms
Deep Look
Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has issued a stern warning to the United States: if President Donald Trump proceeds with a 50% tariff increase on Brazilian goods, Brazil will hit back with reciprocal trade penalties. The threat comes amid deepening diplomatic tensions as Trump attempts to influence Jair Bolsonaro’s ongoing criminal prosecution.
Lula’s comments, broadcast Thursday in a preview of a full interview with TV Record, laid out his readiness to use Brazil’s newly passed reciprocity law—a legal mechanism approved by Congress to respond to foreign economic coercion. “If he charges 50 from us, we will charge 50 from them,” Lula said. “Respect is good. I like to offer mine and I like to receive it.”
The clash now threatens to spark a full-fledged trade war between two major hemispheric economies. Trump’s tariff threats—formally posted to social media and conveyed in a direct letter to Brazil—denounce what he calls a “witch hunt” trial of Bolsonaro, the far-right former president and Trump ally.
Trump’s Tariff Letter Crosses Diplomatic Lines
The document reportedly blasts Brazil’s Supreme Court and criticizes its rulings on digital regulation, using those judicial actions as a rationale for punitive tariffs. The letter arrives as Bolsonaro stands trial for attempting to overturn Brazil’s 2022 election result—a case that mirrors Trump’s own legal troubles in the United States.
Lula ordered diplomats to return the letter unopened if it physically arrives at Brazil’s presidential palace, calling it an inappropriate attempt to interfere in an independent judiciary.
“There’s nothing Lula or Brazil can do about Bolsonaro’s trial,” said Carlos Melo, a political scientist at São Paulo’s Insper University. “How do you negotiate over that? It would be a capitulation.”
U.S. Justification Under Scrutiny
Trump claims authority to impose tariffs under the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act, citing national economic security. However, the justification has come under fire. The U.S. actually runs a trade surplus with Brazil, undermining the stated rationale.
The U.S. Court of International Trade ruled in May that Trump exceeded his legal authority by using emergency powers to impose tariffs without congressional approval. The administration is appealing, but critics say Trump’s Brazil move adds evidence of overreach.
“This is a brazenly illegal effort by Donald Trump to sacrifice the economy to settle personal scores,” said Sen. Ron Wyden (D-OR). “It’s far outside his legal authority.”
BRICS, Global South, and Broader Motives
Officials in Lula’s administration believe the tariffs are also aimed at curbing Brazil’s growing influence in the Global South. At the BRICS summit in Rio this week, Lula again floated the idea of replacing the U.S. dollar with an alternative currency for international trade—an initiative Trump has sharply criticized.
“Trump’s real fear isn’t Bolsonaro’s trial—it’s Brazil’s alignment with new global financial alternatives,” said Gleisi Hoffmann, Brazil’s institutional relations minister. “We won’t be Trump’s hostages.”
The move has united parts of Brazil’s political spectrum rarely in agreement. Even critics of Lula, including O Estado de S. Paulo, a right-leaning newspaper, published an editorial blasting Trump’s actions as “a mafia thing” and called Lula’s pushback “correct.”
“Even by Trump’s standards, this letter crossed every boundary,” the paper wrote.
Domestic Fallout and Political Reversal
Though Lula has recently struggled with approval ratings, analysts say Trump’s tariffs could politically energize the Brazilian president, reframing him as a defender of national sovereignty. “This is a political gift to Lula,” said Andre Pagliarini, a professor at Louisiana State University.
Thomas Traumann, a political consultant and former minister, called Trump’s move “a game changer” for Brazil’s 2026 election. “It puts Lula back in the game and Bolsonaro as the scapegoat if things go wrong economically.”
Meanwhile, fears are growing that Bolsonaro could attempt to flee Brazil if convicted. His passport has been confiscated, but lawmakers and media outlets worry Trump might offer political asylum. Bolsonaro’s son, Eduardo, now based in the U.S., praised Trump’s letter online and encouraged supporters to thank the former president.
Trade Talks Unraveling
A Brazilian foreign ministry official told the Associated Press that months of bilateral negotiations on trade and tariffs are now “up in the air.” The economic blowback could disrupt multiple sectors, from agriculture to aerospace.
Trump, meanwhile, continues to argue that tariffs are a minimal risk to the U.S. economy. Inflation has cooled recently, but economists warn the full effects may be delayed. Some companies have stockpiled inventory to avoid tariff costs, but as those supplies run out, consumer prices may rise and growth may slow.
In both Washington and Brasília, the stakes are clear: a battle over tariffs that began as an attempt to defend a political ally may now spiral into a diplomatic crisis with lasting global consequences.
Lula Threatens Tariffs
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