NATO Meets in Turkey as Ukraine Ceasefire Talks Loom \ Newslooks \ Washington DC \ Mary Sidiqi \ Evening Edition \ U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio met with NATO allies in Turkey Thursday to prepare for a crucial summit and push for higher defense spending. The talks coincide with efforts to broker a ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine war, with Rubio and Trump’s envoy attending related meetings in Istanbul. Trump demands NATO members boost defense spending to 5% of GDP.
Quick Looks
- NATO foreign ministers gather in Antalya ahead of June summit.
- Rubio joins allies to prep strategy for European security.
- U.S. pushing NATO to target 5% of GDP for defense.
- Only 22 of 32 NATO members have met 2% defense target.
- Trump administration seeks major hikes in allied military investment.
- Ukraine-Russia ceasefire talks happening separately in Istanbul.
- Rubio, Steve Witkoff to attend Ukraine-Russia peace talks.
- Ukraine FM Sybiha meets with Rubio, German and Turkish counterparts.
- Turkey hosting meetings, pushing 360-degree regional security plan.
- Ukraine’s NATO membership still uncertain amid Russian opposition.
- Turkish President Erdogan to meet Zelenskyy on Thursday.
- Kremlin sends delegation, but Putin not confirmed to attend.
- NATO may redefine defense spending to include cyber, infrastructure.
- Proposed goal: 3.5% hard defense, 1.5% infrastructure by 2032.
Deep Look
Rubio, NATO Ministers Gather in Turkey as U.S. Demands Bigger Defense Budgets and Peace Talks Gain Momentum
In a pivotal moment for NATO and European security, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio joined alliance foreign ministers Thursday in Antalya, Turkey, to lay groundwork for a high-stakes summit in June—just as delicate negotiations unfold on a possible ceasefire in Ukraine.
While officially focused on NATO’s strategic trajectory, the gathering also serves as a staging ground for broader diplomatic maneuvers. Rubio, traveling with President Donald Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff, is scheduled to participate Friday in ceasefire talks in Istanbul between Russian and Ukrainian delegations. Those talks could mark a significant turning point in the three-year war that has left Ukraine devastated and tested the unity of the Western alliance.
Rubio Meets with Ukraine, Germany, Turkey
Before the main summit, Rubio held meetings with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha, German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul, and Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan. Fidan’s nation is playing a key mediator role, hosting the negotiations and pushing for what Turkish officials describe as a “360-degree” approach to regional security—one that includes the Middle East and areas surrounding NATO’s eastern flank.
According to Turkey’s foreign ministry, Sybiha and Fidan discussed ceasefire conditions and steps toward a sustainable peace deal with Russia. Whether those talks gain traction depends heavily on the diplomatic choreography that follows—including whether Russian President Vladimir Putin or President Trump appears in person.
Trump Hints at Istanbul Visit, Putin Remains Elusive
Trump, while traveling from Saudi Arabia to Qatar, hinted that he might join the talks in Istanbul—especially if Putin is present. “He’d like me to be there, and that’s a possibility,” Trump said, leaving the door open to a dramatic diplomatic appearance.
Putin’s participation, however, remains unclear. The Kremlin announced that senior officials, including aide Vladimir Medinsky, Deputy Defense Minister Alexander Fomin, and Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin, would represent Russia. Putin himself has not confirmed attendance. For Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, whose meeting with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is scheduled for Thursday, a direct meeting with Putin remains a critical condition for advancing peace.
Ukraine’s NATO Hopes Stall
Zelenskyy’s long-standing goal of joining NATO remains off the table, for now. Trump has signaled alignment with Russia’s objections to Ukraine’s accession, further complicating Kyiv’s prospects. Despite Ukraine’s participation in NATO-related discussions in Antalya, no significant progress on membership is expected at this stage.
U.S. Pushes Allies to Hit 5% Defense Target
At the heart of the NATO talks is a new U.S. demand: that all NATO members raise their defense spending to 5% of gross domestic product (GDP)—more than double the current 2% baseline agreed in 2023. That figure, floated by President Trump and backed by Rubio and U.S. Ambassador to NATO Matthew Whitaker, marks a bold escalation in American pressure on its allies.
Only 22 of NATO’s 32 members currently meet the 2% goal. The U.S., at 3.38%, is one of the few consistently near the top, but its defense spending has declined relative to GDP over the past decade. Trump and Rubio argue the new 5% goal is essential given evolving threats, though critics warn it’s an unrealistic ask.
“5% is not just a number, it is a necessity for our security,” Whitaker said earlier this week, underscoring the administration’s belief that deterrence now requires unprecedented military investment.
Redefining What Counts as Defense
Notably, the Dutch government and other NATO members are exploring a revised structure for the 5% target: 3.5% for direct military expenditures (weapons, forces, hardware) and 1.5% for related needs like cybersecurity, mobility infrastructure, and digital defense capabilities. The combined figure would align with Trump’s demand, while also reflecting modern defense realities.
Whitaker appeared to endorse the split, noting that “defense today also includes things like mobility, infrastructure, cybersecurity. It is definitely more than just missiles, tanks, and howitzers.”
Still, the seven-year timeline—aiming for full implementation by 2032—has some NATO members wary. Many nations have domestic political constraints, economic recovery priorities, or constitutional limits on military budgets.
Turkey Advocates for Inclusive, Broader NATO Role
Turkey, playing a key host and negotiator role, used the Antalya summit to press for deeper inclusion in European security frameworks. Turkish officials argue that NATO members outside the European Union, like Turkey, should have a more formalized role in shaping European defense policy.
Fidan is also urging NATO to broaden its view of security challenges, emphasizing threats in the Middle East, North Africa, and the Caucasus in addition to the immediate war in Ukraine.
What to Expect Next
The NATO foreign ministers’ meeting serves as the dress rehearsal for the alliance’s main summit in The Hague on June 25. There, leaders are expected to finalize the 5% spending proposal, present updated threat assessments, and clarify NATO’s stance on Ukraine’s future.
While no breakthrough announcements are expected in Turkey, the meeting provides critical insight into where alliance unity stands—and whether Trump’s assertive approach to diplomacy and defense spending will reshape NATO once again.
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