Netanyahu Faces Coalition Crisis Amid Gaza War/ Newslooks/ WASHINGTON/ J. Mansour/ morning Edition/ Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition risks unraveling after an ultra-Orthodox party quit over military draft disputes. The crisis complicates ceasefire negotiations in Gaza and may push Israel closer to early elections. Netanyahu now faces intense political pressure from both domestic partners and the Trump administration.
Israel Coalition Crisis Quick Looks
- Ultra-Orthodox party exits Netanyahu’s coalition over draft exemptions
- Coalition shrinks to 61 seats, threatening government stability
- Gaza ceasefire talks face new political hurdles amid divisions
- Decades-old military exemptions for religious students spark national debate
- Supreme Court ruling pushes government to resolve enlistment issue
- Far-right partners may bolt if Netanyahu compromises with Hamas
- Trump administration presses Israel to wrap up Gaza conflict
- Early elections loom as possible outcome of coalition crisis
Deep Look
Netanyahu’s Coalition Cracks as Ultra-Orthodox Parties Revolt, Casting Shadow Over Israel’s Gaza Strategy
TEL AVIV, Israel (AP) — Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s fragile coalition is teetering on the brink after a critical partner, the ultra-Orthodox United Torah Judaism (UTJ) party, announced on Tuesday it is leaving the government. The rift, centered around deep divisions over military draft exemptions for religious students, could fundamentally reshape Israel’s political landscape and complicate efforts to secure a ceasefire in Gaza.
‘While UTJ’s immediate departure doesn’t topple Netanyahu’s government overnight, it significantly weakens his parliamentary majority and injects fresh uncertainty into the leadership of a nation already engulfed in war and political polarization.
Draft Dispute Sparks Coalition Crisis
At the heart of the crisis lies a decades-long controversy over Israel’s policy of exempting ultra-Orthodox men from compulsory military service. Mandatory service is a bedrock of Israeli national identity for most Jewish citizens, but a historic arrangement dating back to Israel’s first prime minister allowed small numbers of ultra-Orthodox men to dedicate themselves exclusively to religious study. Over time, these exemptions ballooned into tens of thousands, fueling resentment among secular and traditional Israelis who view the practice as both unfair and economically burdensome.
The issue has grown increasingly urgent during Israel’s nearly two-year war in Gaza, which has claimed hundreds of soldiers’ lives and placed unprecedented strain on the military. Calls for ultra-Orthodox enlistment have grown louder, leading to political fault lines that threaten Netanyahu’s once-solid alliance with religious parties.
Shuki Friedman, vice president of the Jewish People Policy Institute, a Jerusalem-based think tank, described the current threat to Netanyahu’s government as “more serious than ever.”
Netanyahu’s Majority Under Pressure
Without UTJ, Netanyahu’s coalition holds just 61 seats in Israel’s 120-member Knesset—a razor-thin majority that makes him vulnerable to the demands and whims of smaller factions, particularly the far-right parties. These nationalist allies fiercely oppose ending the war in Gaza, insisting on total military victory over Hamas.
Should another ultra-Orthodox party also leave the coalition over the draft issue, Netanyahu could lose his parliamentary majority altogether, triggering a potential governmental collapse.
Such instability threatens to derail delicate ceasefire negotiations aimed at halting the bloodshed in Gaza. While the political turmoil may not entirely kill the chances of an agreement with Hamas, it severely constrains Netanyahu’s room for maneuver. Any substantial concessions to Hamas could provoke far-right partners to withdraw support, making governance nearly impossible.
The Role of Israel’s Supreme Court
Adding to Netanyahu’s troubles is a ruling from Israel’s Supreme Court, which declared that the current system of blanket exemptions for the ultra-Orthodox constitutes illegal discrimination against the secular majority. The court has demanded the government either pass a new law codifying the exemptions or begin drafting ultra-Orthodox men into the military.
Efforts to legislate a new compromise have repeatedly stalled, in part because Netanyahu’s own political base is deeply divided on the matter. Many right-wing voters oppose sweeping exemptions, while the ultra-Orthodox parties view mandatory enlistment as a threat to their religious way of life.
Gaza Ceasefire Talks Hang in the Balance
The coalition rupture comes at a delicate moment in the ongoing Gaza conflict. Netanyahu has been under pressure from the Trump administration to bring the war to a close, particularly to facilitate negotiations aimed at securing the release of Israeli hostages held by Hamas.
Hamas demands a permanent end to the war as part of any ceasefire agreement—a position Netanyahu’s far-right allies reject outright. They would accept only a temporary truce, insisting the conflict must continue until Hamas is eliminated.
If Netanyahu concedes too much to Hamas, he risks losing support from those far-right factions, potentially collapsing his government. Yet without some form of compromise, the war threatens to drag on indefinitely, further destabilizing both Gaza and Israel’s political scene.
Early Elections on the Horizon?
While Netanyahu’s opponents cannot legally move to dissolve the Knesset until the end of this year, many analysts believe early elections are becoming increasingly likely. Even as parliament heads into its summer recess, political insiders suggest parties might use the break to hammer out a compromise or prepare for a potential election campaign.
Cabinet Minister Miki Zohar of Netanyahu’s Likud party voiced optimism that UTJ might be coaxed back into the coalition, saying, “God willing, everything will be fine.” Yet the path forward appears fraught.
Gayil Talshir, a political scientist at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, predicts Netanyahu will attempt to shift the national conversation in the coming months away from the contentious draft issue and the Gaza war, possibly toward diplomatic breakthroughs, such as new normalization agreements between Israel and Arab or Muslim nations.
Such achievements could provide Netanyahu with an electoral boost if snap elections are called early next year. Currently, Israel is scheduled to hold its next national elections in November 2026.
However, the 60-day window of a potential ceasefire deal might serve as Netanyahu’s political lifeline—an opportunity to stabilize his government long enough to recalibrate public opinion and prepare for an electoral showdown.
An Uncertain Path Forward
As Netanyahu walks the political tightrope between satisfying ultra-Orthodox demands and maintaining far-right support for his Gaza policies, Israel faces a period of heightened volatility. With coalition partners threatening to leave and the war showing no clear resolution, the coming months could prove pivotal for the future of Israel’s government—and the fate of Gaza’s civilians caught in the crossfire.
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