Russian Ambitions in Ukraine and the Future of NATO
Recently, President Joe Biden had a Virtual Summit session with Russian Leader Vladimir Putin. This was in concern of Russian military forces massing on the border of Ukraine. Putin demanded that Ukraine or the Republic of Georgia be not allowed to join NATO-The North Atlantic Treat Organization that was a bulwark against Communism during the Cold War. It also demanded that NATO Forces withdraw to pre-1997 borders/locations of the alliance away from the Russian Sphere of Influence in Eastern Europe and Central Asia. President Biden warned there will be “severe consequences” if Russia invades Ukraine. The Russian Foreign Minister announced that there will be talks with the United States and European countries in January 2022. President Biden has warned Putin of sanctions if Russian Forces invade Ukraine, which is a partner of NATO but has not joined the alliance.
Russian FM: Security talks with US, NATO to start next month (msn.com) The Russians are looking for security accords that address their concerns. For many this may seem odd, but Russian History is replete with a fear of encirclement by Western Powers and the need for a strong central figure to lead the country in times of perceived crisis. The former Soviet nation appears to be preparing its citizens for the likelihood of conflict How the Kremlin Is Militarizing Russian Society – The New York Times (nytimes.com)
In recent remarks at the Russian Defense Ministry Putin stated: The U.S. and its allies “must understand that we have nowhere to retreat further” and Russia can’t allow them to deploy missiles in Ukraine that would be a few minutes’ strike distance from Moscow, Putin told senior officers Tuesday at the Russian Defense Ministry. Russia will “take adequate military-technical response measures and react harshly to unfriendly steps,” he said.
NATO has the powerful doctrine of collective defense. This is under Article V of its Treaty, that if one member is attacked, all other members will come to its defense. This worked well as a deterrent in the Cold War, but has only been invoked once, right after September 11th, 2001 by member states in support of the United States. This also led to the alliance supporting the United States in Afghanistan from 2001-2021.
President Biden has stated he prefers to use diplomacy vice the use of military force to settle problems. That is admirable but there have been previous Administrations that exhaust diplomacy first but reserve the right to use force if Diplomatic, Informational, or Economic measures have been exhausted. The Biden Administration in June 2021 made a public statement about American Leadership in the world at the end of the G-7 Summit. “America’s back in the business of leading the world alongside nations who share our most deeply held values,” Biden said during a press conference at the conclusion of the G-7 summit. Biden says ‘America is back at the table’ as 1st foreign trip continues – ABC News (go.com) “We do not view NATO as a sort of protection racket. We believe that NATO is vital to our ability to maintain American security for the next — next — the remainder of the century,” Biden said. “I want them to know, unlike whether they doubted whether we believe NATO and Section 5 is a sacred obligation.”
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has called for the dialogue and wants Western European concerns addressed. This is a genuine concern after the Afghanistan Withdrawal that was not America’s finest hour. Europe is also under strain not only with COVID-19 and Supply Chain issues but energy security as Russia also provides the majority of petroleum and natural gas to the European market, a major concern in winter.
The Future of NATO my hang in the balance within these security talks with Russia. President Macron of France has stated his doubts on the ability of the Alliance to work in the future. He has called for other mechanisms to provide European Collective Security that do not include the United States.
This will be an extreme test of Diplomacy for the Biden Administration. The entire world to include other competitors like Iran and the Peoples Republic of China will be watching to see how the US and NATO conduct these talks with Russia.
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