Starmer’s Budget Bill Passes After Welfare U‑turns \ Newslooks \ Washington DC \ Mary Sidiqi \ Evening Edition \ Prime Minister Keir Starmer managed to pass his key budget bill in the House of Commons 335–260, but only after scaling back welfare benefit cuts amid intense backlash from his own Labour MPs. The revised legislation delays and softens reforms to disability support, but still threatens to save billions. The episode exposes leadership challenges as economic struggles dampen public approval.
Quick Looks
- Budget bill passed 335–260 after welfare cuts softened
- Government delays and dilutes reforms to disability benefits
- Still, 49 Labour MPs break ranks—a blow to Starmer’s authority
- Rebellion follows earlier scrapped plans on heating subsidies and abuse inquiry
- Critics warn of stalled savings and stalled public service investment
- Compromise: existing benefit recipients safe; new rules delayed pending review
- Starmer concedes mistakes, saying focus shifted away from domestic priorities
- Political turbulence grows as Reform UK gains traction in polls
Deep Look
Nearly a year after a historic electoral triumph, Prime Minister Keir Starmer faced a sobering reality this week: a sweeping welfare reform bill, central to his cost-cutting budget, barely survived a House of Commons vote—only after being watered down amid fierce backlash from within his own Labour Party. While the bill technically passed, the political and strategic fallout from this “hollow victory” is already casting long shadows over Starmer’s premiership.
A Rocky Passage for a Core Reform
The budget bill, pitched as a fiscal cornerstone of Starmer’s domestic agenda, passed 335 to 260 in the Commons, with 49 Labour MPs voting against it—a significant rebellion for a party that only months ago celebrated a commanding majority. The government had to significantly dilute the planned cuts to disability benefits, key among the measures aimed at trimming the UK’s ballooning welfare budget.
The original plan proposed raising the threshold for eligibility, a move projected to reduce support for up to 3.2 million people by 2030, according to the Institute for Fiscal Studies. This triggered outrage among Labour backbenchers and rights advocates, many of whom accused the government of abandoning core party values.
In a last-ditch effort to avoid legislative collapse, the Starmer administration guaranteed protections for existing benefit recipients and agreed to delay implementation pending a formal review with disability organizations.
Leadership Under Strain
Despite the bill’s survival, political analysts see the vote as a significant dent in Starmer’s authority. Rob Ford, a politics professor at the University of Manchester, called the situation a “failure of leadership,” emphasizing that even a supermajority requires deft political management:
“You need to know how to count,” Ford said, adding that Starmer misjudged both his party’s unity and public sentiment.
This episode marks the third major U-turn from the government in just weeks. In May, Labour walked back plans to end winter heating subsidies for pensioners, and in June, Starmer ordered a national inquiry into organized child sexual abuse—reportedly after lobbying from both opposition MPs and Elon Musk, who has taken an interest in UK policy via social media activism.
These backpedals have reinforced the narrative that, despite his landslide win, Starmer is struggling to govern decisively.
Economic Stakes and Strategic Dilemmas
The welfare cuts were intended to save £5 billion ($7 billion) annually, money that Starmer hoped to redirect toward public services like the NHS, housing, and education. But with the latest concessions, analysts question whether the savings will materialize at all—forcing the government to choose between raising taxes or facing further cuts elsewhere.
At the same time, the UK economy remains sluggish. Inflation is persistent, growth is tepid, and the cost-of-living crisis continues. These factors have dragged Starmer’s approval ratings to historic lows, approaching levels last seen under Liz Truss, whose premiership collapsed in just 49 days in 2022.
The Fallout Within Labour
The welfare reform vote has not only fractured Labour unity but also stirred deeper questions about the party’s identity. MP Rachel Maskell denounced the cuts as “Dickensian,” and Ian Lavery dismissed the final legislation as “a hodgepodge of a bill that means nothing to nobody.”
Such criticism reflects an ongoing tension between Starmer’s pragmatic, centrist governance style and the more traditionally progressive ethos of many Labour MPs and activists. Starmer’s prioritization of fiscal caution over redistributive policy may alienate parts of his base ahead of future elections.
Political Volatility: The Rise of Reform UK
Even more troubling for Labour is the emergence of Reform UK, a right-wing populist party led by Nigel Farage. In local elections this spring, Reform made significant inroads, siphoning off voters from both Conservatives and Labour. Recent polling suggests Reform could soon eclipse the Tories, threatening the traditional two-party system that has dominated British politics for a century.
The shifting landscape suggests Starmer’s challenges are far from over. Though he has until 2029 to call another general election, internal dissent and external political realignment could erode Labour’s lead much faster than expected.
Starmer’s Response: Acknowledging Mistakes
In an interview with The Sunday Times, Starmer admitted he had underestimated the political cost of focusing heavily on international affairs—such as NATO and Middle East diplomacy—while domestic issues, particularly welfare, were left festering:
“I was heavily focused on what was happening internationally. I should have acted sooner to bring everyone onside.”
It’s a rare public acknowledgment of miscalculation from a prime minister who swept into office promising managerial competence and party unity.
What Comes Next
While Tuesday’s vote advances the bill in principle, it must now pass through further legislative scrutiny, where opposition amendments could surface again. The episode has demonstrated that even with a robust majority, Labour will struggle to pass controversial reforms without broad internal consensus.
Starmer still holds time and numbers on his side. But, as Professor Ford cautioned, “This isn’t the last tough vote he’ll face.” Unless there’s a significant economic turnaround or public policy win, the Labour government may continue to absorb political damage—both from within and from the growing populist wave outside Westminster.
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