Trump, Putin Eye Post-War Trade, But Risks Keep U.S. Firms Out/ Newslooks/ WASHINGTON/ J. Mansour/ Morning Edition/ President Trump and Russian President Putin suggest rekindling U.S.-Russia trade post-Ukraine war, but deep legal, political, and economic hurdles stand in the way. Harsh Russian laws, unresolved sanctions, and war damage have deterred foreign businesses. Experts say a return of U.S. companies is unlikely even after peace.
Post-War Trade Hopes: Quick Looks
- Trump says Russia has “unlimited” trade potential post-conflict
- Putin open to returning foreign firms — under conditions
- U.S. firms left after 2022 invasion, writing off massive losses
- Russia labeled U.S. and allies as “unfriendly states”
- Harsh restrictions make business reentry highly risky
- Putin: Tech firms like Microsoft should be “strangled”
- McDonald’s, Coca-Cola, ExxonMobil among firms that exited
- Russia’s military focus deters most Western investors
- Buyback agreements uncertain amid weak rule of law
- EU sanctions still likely to complicate future trade
Deep Look: Trump and Putin Hope for Post-War Trade, but U.S. Companies May Not Return
By David McHugh, Daria Litvinova & Katie Marie Davies | AP – May 31, 2025
“Russia wants to do largescale TRADE with the United States when this catastrophic ‘bloodbath’ is over, and I agree,” Trump said after a call with Putin.
Yet the optimism faded quickly after another wave of Russian missile strikes on Kyiv, prompting Trump to label Putin “crazy” and threaten renewed sanctions. Putin, for his part, warned Western companies that reentry into Russia may come with strings attached — or not at all.
Why U.S. Businesses May Stay Away
Legal Minefield for Foreign Firms
Since 2022, Russia has passed laws labeling nations like the U.S. as “unfriendly states,” restricting the repatriation of profits, asset control, and board voting rights. Companies that left, such as Coca-Cola, Starbucks, and ExxonMobil, often sold assets for half their value or wrote them off entirely. The Kremlin allowed allies to scoop up valuable assets cheaply.
“There’s no specific evidence of any company ready to return,” said Chris Weafer, CEO of Macro-Advisory Ltd.
Putin’s Harsh Rhetoric on Western Tech
In a May 26 Kremlin meeting, Putin took aim at firms like Zoom and Microsoft, saying Russia should retaliate for their service suspensions post-invasion.
“We need to strangle them,” Putin said bluntly.
He assured McDonald’s Russian successor, Vkusno-i Tochka, that the U.S. fast food giant wouldn’t be allowed to reclaim its restaurants.
Bleak Economic Outlook
Russia’s economy may grow in the military sector, but most industries face stagnation. Long-term projections are dismal.
“Russia has one of the lowest projected growth rates and one of the highest country risks in the world,” noted Heli Simola from the Bank of Finland.
With investment centered around military expansion, it’s unlikely U.S. firms would reenter — particularly under ethical and legal constraints.
Buyback Clauses Offer Little Security
Companies like Ford and Renault exited Russia with repurchase agreements that could allow reentry. But analysts say the agreements are weak in a volatile legal environment where terms can be altered or ignored.
Energy Sector No Longer Needs U.S.
ExxonMobil wrote off $3.4 billion when Russia abruptly terminated its stake in Sakhalin’s oil fields. While Russia once relied on Western energy giants, today’s climate sees domestic firms largely self-sufficient, reducing opportunities for reentry.
Some Firms Never Left
Data from the Kyiv School of Economics shows:
- 2,329 foreign companies remain active in Russia
- 1,344 are exiting, and 494 have exited completely
- Yale University lists around two dozen U.S. companies still operating there, with over 100 scaling back operations
These are often firms from China, India, or non-aligned nations. Remaining U.S. businesses face reputational risks and complex compliance burdens.
EU Sanctions Will Persist
Even if the U.S. were to drop sanctions, EU penalties are likely to continue, presenting logistical challenges for any firm seeking global integration. U.S. sanctions remain more severe due to restrictions tied to the dollar-based financial system, but the EU’s latest rounds are extensive and ongoing.
Trump and Putin’s Talk: Mostly Symbolic
Though both leaders have publicly expressed hope for renewed economic cooperation, experts say such outcomes are improbable.
“Russia’s business environment has sustained long-lasting damage,” says economist Elina Ribakova of the Bruegel Institute. “A return of U.S. businesses is not very likely.”
With Putin insisting on territorial claims that Ukraine rejects and fresh rounds of Western sanctions, there’s little hope for swift postwar reconciliation in the business realm.
Trump’s aspiration to revitalize U.S.-Russia trade may play well politically, especially among isolationist or pro-détente voters. But the practical realities — legal, financial, and reputational — are stark and deeply discouraging.
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