Trump Trade War Could Undermine Montana Coal Mine \ Newslooks \ Washington DC \ Mary Sidiqi \ Evening Edition \ Montana ranchers battling a massive coal mine see a surprising ally in President Trump’s trade war. Signal Peak Energy, dependent on exports to Asia, could suffer if tariffs provoke retaliation from buyers like Japan or South Korea. Though backed by pro-coal policies, the mine faces uncertainty from shifting global economics and politics.
Quick Looks
- Pat Thiele fights Signal Peak mine encroaching on his land.
- Signal Peak relies on Asian exports—98% go to Japan and South Korea.
- Trump’s tariffs may unintentionally threaten U.S. coal exports.
- Local ranchers and politicians express fear over global retaliation.
- Signal Peak was previously involved in a major criminal probe.
- Trade disputes could disrupt coal shipments through Canadian ports.
- Trump-backed deregulation helps mine expand, but export risks remain.
- Tariff fallout could clash with pro-coal GOP rhetoric.
- Legal battles continue; ranchers grow skeptical of outcomes.
- Montana economy deeply tied to mine revenue and employment.
Deep Look
Montana’s Coal War: Ranchers, Trade Battles, and the Future of Signal Peak Mine
In the rolling hills of central Montana, where charred earth from wildfires meets the grazing pastures of local ranchers, a quiet war over energy, land, and trade policy is playing out. Former ranch hand and Army Ranger Pat Thiele stands at the heart of it—an aging veteran turned reluctant activist, whose decades-long struggle against the sprawling underground expansion of the Signal Peak coal mine now intersects with international geopolitics and the volatile direction of American trade policy.
Thiele’s fight began as a personal mission to protect his land in the Bull Mountains. But it has evolved into a symbolic battle over the soul of coal country, testing the limits of environmental law, political loyalty, and global commerce. Now, Thiele and his neighbors see a glimmer of unintended hope—not from courtroom victories, but from the ripple effects of President Donald Trump’s renewed commitment to protectionist trade policies in his second term.
The Mine That Won’t Quit
Signal Peak Energy operates one of the few underground coal mines remaining in the western United States. With nearly a billion tons of coal in reserve, the mine near Roundup, Montana, is a cornerstone of Musselshell County’s economy. Employing around 300 workers and accounting for a third of the county’s revenue through taxes and royalties, it’s a powerful local force.
Backed by a provision in a Republican tax bill that facilitates mine expansion, Signal Peak has been eyeing growth for years. And with Trump doubling down on pro-coal deregulation—undoing environmental rules, relaxing safety oversight, and promoting fossil fuels abroad—the company appears to have momentum on its side.
But there’s a catch: 98% of the coal extracted from the mine isn’t burned in American power plants. It’s shipped overseas, primarily to Japan and South Korea. That means Signal Peak’s future is inextricably tied to foreign markets—markets now increasingly at odds with the White House due to an escalating trade war.
The Tariff Tangle
In a twist of economic irony, the very policies Trump has championed to “save coal” might hinder it. His aggressive “America First” trade doctrine has led to sweeping tariffs on steel, electronics, and shipbuilding goods—industries vital to the economies of Japan and South Korea. Those same countries, now targets of U.S. trade pressure, might retaliate.
Thiele believes retaliation could hit coal where it hurts. “If we slap tariffs on their industries, they might decide they don’t want to buy our coal anymore,” he said. “That’s their leverage.”
Local officials like Musselshell County Commissioner Robert Pancratz, a Trump supporter, are watching with cautious optimism and concern. “We’re glad the president supports coal,” he said. “But tariffs are unpredictable. We don’t want to win one battle only to lose the war.”
Even Republican Rep. Troy Downing, a champion of the mine’s expansion in Congress, acknowledged the uncertainty. “You have to look at this as a negotiation,” he said, referencing Trump’s business playbook, The Art of the Deal. “But there’s discomfort in that strategy—it could go either way.”
Export Reliance and a Shrinking Domestic Market
The coal industry in the United States has been in retreat for nearly two decades. Domestic utilities have increasingly switched to natural gas, solar, and wind—cleaner, cheaper, and more politically favorable alternatives. As a result, the export market has become the lifeline for coal producers like Signal Peak.
In 2024, U.S. coal exports topped 100 million tons, much of it heading to Asia, where coal-fueled power plants continue to come online to support growing economies. But exporting coal is costly and complicated. Most of America’s accessible ports are located far from the Western mines. Rail costs alone can eat into profits, especially without a West Coast terminal.
Signal Peak solved that logistics problem by negotiating rail access to a Canadian port in British Columbia. Yet, Trump’s rocky relationship with Canada raises concerns. Trade friction between the two nations could jeopardize that export route, leaving the mine with few viable alternatives.
“It’s not that the coal isn’t sellable,” said Andrew Blumenfeld, a coal industry expert at McCloskey by OPIS. “It’s that moving it thousands of miles makes it economically vulnerable. Geography is destiny in this case.”
A Troubled Past and Uncertain Future
Adding to the mine’s precarious situation is its controversial history. Several years ago, Signal Peak was the focus of a sweeping federal investigation into corruption and misconduct. The result: multiple convictions for embezzlement, drug trafficking, money laundering, and firearm violations involving former employees and associates. In 2021, the company itself pleaded guilty to environmental and workplace safety violations and paid a $1 million fine.
During a recent congressional hearing, Rep. Yassamin Ansari criticized the company’s history, calling it “a disgrace” that such entities are being supported by federal policies aimed at transferring public lands into private industrial use.
Signal Peak’s current CEO, Parker Phipps, defended the company, noting that the violations occurred before his tenure and that Signal Peak has since cooperated fully with authorities. However, Phipps also made it clear that the mine’s future is far from guaranteed. If expansion plans remain stalled and market access declines, the company may start winding down operations as early as 2025.
State Support and Global Resistance
While local and state officials in Montana continue to advocate for the mine’s expansion, international dynamics are less predictable. Wyoming Governor Mark Gordon recently led a trade delegation to Japan and Taiwan, attempting to assure foreign buyers of the reliability of American coal. He emphasized that while renewables are growing, many Asian economies still need stable baseload power.
“They’re realizing they can’t be 100% renewable,” Gordon said. “We have a product they need—but we have to secure those relationships.”
But foreign governments are under increasing pressure to decarbonize. Global coal production reached a record 10 billion tons last year, largely fueled by Asian demand. Yet, international sentiment continues to shift. Climate agreements, green energy investments, and public opinion could all push countries like Japan and South Korea to distance themselves from U.S. coal—especially if tensions over tariffs grow.
A Rancher’s Realism
Back in the Bull Mountains, Pat Thiele no longer harbors illusions of victory. He’s seen too many close calls—from the 2008 financial crisis to the COVID-19 pandemic—to believe that any one moment will shutter the mine for good. But he also hasn’t stopped fighting.
“When I started this, I thought we had a shot at shutting it down,” he reflected. “Now, I think maybe—just maybe—global politics will do what the courts and protests couldn’t.”
But even that is a long shot.
“I’m not betting on a trade war saving this place,” Thiele said. “I’ve been at this too long to hang my hopes on that.”
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