Trump Wins Big Tax Bill, But Risks Political Cost Ahead of Midterms/ Newslooks/ WASHINGTON/ J. Mansour/ Morning Edition/ President Trump secured passage of his sweeping tax cuts bill, branding it the “One Big, Beautiful Bill.” Despite Republican unity, the legislation faces backlash over deep cuts to Medicaid and social programs. Democrats plan to target the bill in the 2026 elections, risking political consequences for Trump’s victory.
Trump Tax Cuts Bill Quick Looks
- Trump’s “One Big, Beautiful Bill” extends his 2017 tax cuts.
- Democrats say it forces millions off healthcare coverage.
- Medicaid and food assistance face deep funding cuts.
- GOP promises tax relief for tips, overtime, and seniors.
- Bill could leave 11.8 million more Americans uninsured.
- Early polling shows widespread unpopularity, including among independents.
- 2026 midterms could be referendum on Trump’s tax agenda.
Deep Look
Trump Pushes Through Major Tax Cuts Bill, But Political Risks Loom As Democrats Plot Midterm Attacks
WASHINGTON (AP) — President Donald Trump has claimed victory in passing his signature tax cuts bill, a sprawling piece of legislation he branded the “One Big, Beautiful Bill.” But even as Republicans cheer, the political storm clouds are gathering for Trump and his party ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.
Much like Barack Obama’s Affordable Care Act and Joe Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act, Trump’s tax cuts may become a defining feature of his presidency — and a potent target for political opponents.
Trump used a familiar mix of branding, persuasion, and political pressure to bring nearly every Republican in Congress behind the bill. Despite controversial provisions, he strong-armed the measure through solely on GOP votes.
“Trump’s biggest thing is answering the call of the forgotten people,” said Rep. Jason Smith, R-Mo., who chairs the powerful House Ways and Means Committee. “No tax on tips, no tax on overtime, tax relief for seniors — that’s going to be the big impact.”
Cuts Come At A Cost
While Trump touted benefits for middle- and working-class Americans, Democrats say the legislation is a windfall for the wealthy and corporations at the expense of vulnerable citizens. The bill extends Trump’s 2017 tax cuts and eliminates tax hikes that would have hit millions of households if Congress failed to act.
Yet to pay for those cuts, Republicans slashed Medicaid by billions and reduced funding for food assistance programs. According to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office, the changes could leave 11.8 million more Americans without health insurance by 2034.
“In Trump’s first term, Democrats in Congress prevented bad outcomes. This time is different,” warned Sen. Brian Schatz, D-Hawaii. “Hospitals will close, people will die, the cost of electricity will go up, and people will go without food.”
A Familiar Political Pattern
History suggests that presidents often face fierce backlash over their signature legislative victories. Obama’s health care law contributed to a Democratic wipeout in the 2010 midterms. Biden’s legislative successes failed to reverse his sagging poll numbers ahead of 2024.
Trump himself saw no political dividend from his 2017 tax cuts, which failed to prevent Democratic gains in the 2018 midterms or his own 2020 loss to Biden.
“I don’t think there’s much if any evidence from recent or even not-so-recent history of the president’s party passing a big one-party bill and getting rewarded for it,” said Kyle Kondik, an elections analyst at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics.
Republican Concerns Surface
Even some Republicans fear political consequences. Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., repeatedly warned that the bill’s deep cuts would leave his state vulnerable to political attacks similar to those Democrats endured after “Obamacare.” After opposing the bill and clashing with Trump, Tillis announced he would not seek reelection.
“The narrative is going to be overwhelmingly negative in states like California, New York, Illinois, and New Jersey,” Tillis said.
Sen. Lisa Murkowski, R-Alaska, ultimately cast the decisive vote to ensure the bill’s passage but conceded that the legislation needed more work. She urged the House to make changes — a plea that went unheeded.
Mixed Public Opinion
Early polling suggests trouble ahead for Republicans. Surveys show widespread disapproval of the bill, even among independents and some GOP voters. White House officials insist their own internal data paints a more favorable picture, but the political risks are unmistakable.
Trump has tried to blunt criticism by highlighting provisions aimed at working Americans, like eliminating taxes on tip income and overtime pay. But Democrats are determined to make the bill a central focus of the 2026 campaign, tying Trump and GOP lawmakers to the cuts in social programs.
At a rally in Iowa, Trump brushed off Democratic criticism, saying they opposed the bill only because “they hate Trump.” He added, “That doesn’t bother me because I hate them, too.”
For now, Trump’s “One Big, Beautiful Bill” stands as a landmark legislative win — but one that could haunt him and his party as voters head to the polls in less than two years.
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