Trump-Xi Summit Sparks Hopes for U.S.-China Trade Truce Amid High Stakes/ Newslooks/ WASHINGTON/ J. Mansour/ Morning Edition/ President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping are set to meet in Busan, South Korea, reigniting talks of a potential trade truce between the U.S. and China. Amid renewed tensions over tariffs, fentanyl, rare earth exports, and Taiwan, both sides aim to avoid further economic fallout. While temporary agreements may emerge, analysts warn that deeper structural issues remain unresolved.
Quick Look
- Summit Date: October 31, 2025, on APEC sidelines in Busan
- Key Issues: Tariffs, fentanyl precursors, rare earth minerals, TikTok ownership, Taiwan
- U.S. Goal: Reduced tariffs in exchange for Chinese action on fentanyl and tech imports
- China’s Request: Rollback of U.S. tariffs, tech export controls, and maritime fees
- Trade Tensions: Rare earth export threats, 100% retaliatory tariffs, tech chokepoints
- Long-Term Outlook: Fragile truce likely, but strategic rivalry remains entrenched
Trump-Xi Summit Sparks Hopes for U.S.-China Trade Truce Amid High Stakes
Deep Look
BUSAN, South Korea (Oct. 30, 2025) — Hopes for a renewed U.S.-China trade truce are rising ahead of a closely watched summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. The two leaders are set to meet Thursday on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Busan, South Korea — their first in-person meeting since Trump’s return to the presidency.
With tensions running high after months of escalating economic threats, the meeting could mark a turning point in efforts to stabilize the fragile trade relationship between the world’s two largest economies.
Recent Escalations Raise the Stakes
The diplomatic backdrop is tense. Earlier this month, Beijing proposed broadening export restrictions on rare earth minerals — critical components in advanced electronics and military hardware — prompting Trump to threaten sweeping 100% tariffs on Chinese imports. He also floated potential restrictions on goods made with U.S. software destined for China, a move that could further strain global supply chains.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said top-level talks over the weekend yielded some progress. He expects China to delay its rare earth curbs for one year and to resume purchases of U.S. soybeans, a lifeline for American farmers and a key political constituency for Trump.
Exclusive reports confirm that China has already bought its first soybean shipments from the U.S. in months — a symbolic gesture signaling Beijing’s interest in easing trade tensions.
Trump Seeks Fast Wins, Especially on Fentanyl
President Trump has signaled that any reduction in U.S. tariffs will be directly tied to Beijing’s cooperation on curbing the flow of precursor chemicals used to manufacture fentanyl. The synthetic opioid is now the leading cause of overdose deaths in the United States.
Trump is also expected to bring up TikTok, the Chinese-owned social media platform currently facing a potential ban in the U.S. unless its American operations are divested. A final agreement on TikTok could be rolled into a broader trade deal.
China’s foreign ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun said Beijing is committed to achieving “positive results” at the summit. Still, observers caution that the current dynamics resemble a modern-day Cold War, where even short-term agreements don’t necessarily translate into long-term resolution.
Rare Earth, Tariff Deadlines Loom
Time is tight. Agreements forged in earlier rounds of talks — including reduced tariffs and resumed rare earth exports — are set to expire on November 10. If no deal is reached, both sides could see a return to intensified economic confrontation.
“We’ll likely see a temporary extension or framework agreement,” said Scott Kennedy, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “But I don’t expect anything that fundamentally changes the relationship.”
Kennedy added that deeper structural issues — such as U.S. complaints about restricted access to Chinese markets and overcapacity in key Chinese industries — will remain untouched. “If those topics are avoided, that’s already a win for China,” he said.
Broader Strategic Rivalry Still Simmering
Strategic flashpoints, especially Taiwan, loom large over the summit. Chinese state media reported that H-6K bombers recently flew near the self-governed island, raising tensions. Taiwan is both a U.S. partner and a global leader in semiconductor manufacturing, making it central to the tech rivalry between Washington and Beijing.
Despite speculation that Trump may trade Taiwan-related support for economic concessions, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the administration remains firm in its legal and defense commitments to Taiwan.
Alex Gray, Trump’s former National Security Council chief of staff, dismissed the idea of sacrificing Taiwan in a broader agreement. “That’s a think-tank fantasy,” he said. “In reality, Trump has expanded U.S. ties to Taiwan, not weakened them.”
Outlook: Fragile Deal or Tactical Pause?
The White House has hinted that this will be the first of multiple Trump-Xi summits over the coming year, possibly including reciprocal state visits. That suggests a lengthy negotiation period, with both sides seeking partial wins while keeping long-term strategies intact.
“Neither side wants a collapse,” said Ryan Hass of the Brookings Institution. “But neither is ready to concede control over the goods and technologies that power their economies.”
While any short-term deal may ease immediate market concerns and political pressure, the fundamental rivalry between the U.S. and China appears set to continue — one trade round at a time.
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