Trump’s 50% Brazil Coffee Tariff Pushes Beans to China/ Newslooks/ WASHINGTON/ J. Mansour/ Morning Edition/ The Trump administration’s 50% tariff on Brazilian coffee is set to disrupt global supply chains. Brazil, the world’s largest coffee exporter, may redirect shipments to China and the EU. U.S. traders face higher prices, rerouting costs, and a tighter market.
Trump’s Brazil Coffee Tariff Quick Looks
- A 50% U.S. import tariff on Brazilian coffee takes effect August 6.
- Brazil supplies about 8 million bags annually to U.S. buyers.
- China and the EU may absorb diverted Brazilian coffee shipments.
- Coffee consumption in China is growing at over 20% annually.
- U.S. roasters may turn to Central America and Africa for supply.
- Exporters may use “stopover” countries to bypass the full tariff.
- U.S. processors face rising costs and limited supply options.
- Tariff is widely viewed as politically motivated amid U.S.-Brazil tensions.
- Existing shipments loaded before August 6 are exempt until October 6.
Deep Look
The global coffee trade is bracing for disruption as the Trump administration slaps a 50% import tariff on Brazilian coffee — a move likely to reorient trade flows and trigger significant consequences for the U.S. coffee market.
Announced Wednesday, the tariff will go into effect on August 6, affecting one of the most essential commodities traded between Brazil and the United States. Brazil is the world’s largest coffee exporter, and the U.S. is its single biggest buyer, importing around 8 million bags per year — roughly a third of all U.S. coffee consumption, valued at $4.4 billion in the past year.
“The pain will be felt from São Paulo to Seattle,” said Michael J. Nugent, U.S. coffee broker and owner of MJ Nugent & Co. “From origin to roaster, to café chains, grocers, and morning commuters.”
Shift in Trade Patterns
With the new tariff, analysts and traders say Brazil will seek alternative buyers, particularly China and the European Union, where Brazilian coffee currently enters tariff-free. According to Logan Allender, head of coffee at Atlas Coffee Club, Europe may now see a boost in supply from Brazil, while U.S. buyers scramble for alternatives.
China, already a growing destination for Brazilian beans, is positioned to benefit the most. In the first half of 2025, Brazil exported 538,000 bags of coffee to China, per Cecafe, Brazil’s coffee exporters association. Consumption is booming as young Chinese professionals shift from tea to coffee, with per capita consumption doubling in five years and overall consumption growing at 20% annually.
“It’s a perfect storm,” said Marc Schonland, a U.S. coffee industry consultant. “China’s demand is rising, and Brazil has every reason to pivot further east.”
Backdoor Options and Workarounds
Despite the tariff, U.S. coffee importers may seek indirect shipment routes to reduce costs. Experts suggest that routing beans through countries like Mexico or Panama could trim the effective tariff impact to 10–15%.
“Without a strong, traceable supply chain, tariffs are meaningless,” said Debajyoti Bhattacharyya, VP at commodities firm AFEX Ltd. “We can’t even stop oil from flowing — why would coffee be any different?”
While technically legal, these workaround strategies could add logistical complexity and shipping costs, further tightening the already strained market for U.S. roasters.
Brazil Responds with Political Frustration
The Brazilian government expressed frustration over the decision. Though U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent visited Brazil in May, the trip focused on talks with Chinese officials, sidelining Brazilian trade concerns.
The exclusion of coffee from the U.S. exemption list of Brazilian goods suggests a political motive, analysts say. President Trump has criticized Brazil’s Supreme Court over its treatment of his ally Jair Bolsonaro, and this week sanctioned Justice Alexandre de Moraes.
“Trump is using coffee as a bargaining chip,” said commodities analyst Judith Ganes.
Brazil’s coffee producers, caught in the middle of geopolitics, now face the prospect of reshuffling billions of dollars in trade.
Domestic Market Fallout in the U.S.
The tariff is expected to hit U.S. coffee buyers hard. With Brazil’s beans becoming more expensive, buyers are already rushing to secure shipments before the tariff deadline.
“We’re moving fast to get beans out before August 6,” said William Kapos, CEO of Downeast Coffee Roasters. “After that, we’ll have to buy from Central America or Africa.”
But with limited global supply and rising demand elsewhere, U.S. buyers will face higher prices, longer lead times, and reduced flexibility. As all major importers pivot at once, competition for non-Brazilian beans is set to intensify.
Coffee that is loaded in Brazil by August 6 will remain tariff-free until October 6, offering a narrow window for buyers to avoid the impact. But beyond that, U.S. processors will need to rethink sourcing strategies for the long term.
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