Trump’s Shifting Tariffs Leave Trading Partners Confused/ Newslooks/ WASHINGTON/ J. Mansour/ Morning Edition/ President Trump’s abrupt tariff hikes and shifting trade demands have left global partners struggling to negotiate stable agreements. From Canada to Brazil, countries face uncertainty and threats of steep tariffs as Trump mixes economic policy with political grievances. Analysts warn that unpredictability could damage U.S. trade relations and the global economy.
Trump’s Shifting Tariffs Leave Trading Partners Confused: Quick Looks
- Erratic Policy Shifts: Trump’s sudden tariff hikes create confusion worldwide.
- Canada Targeted: 35% tariffs imposed despite recent concessions from Ottawa.
- Brazil Faces Punishment: Trump cites Bolsonaro prosecution in new 50% tariffs.
- Global Tariff Hikes Loom: Trump hints at raising universal import tariffs to 20%.
- Few Trade Deals Secured: Only UK and Vietnam reached agreements under Trump’s “90 days” plan.
- Partners Seek Alternatives: Nations explore pacts outside U.S. influence, turning to Asia and China.
- Trade Experts Alarmed: Analysts warn unpredictability undermines global commerce.
- Political Calculations: Trump prioritizes visible wins over policy consistency.
Trump’s Shifting Tariffs Leave Trading Partners Confused
Deep Look
In a whirlwind week that has rattled capitals across the globe, President Donald Trump has doubled down on his volatile trade agenda, launching tariff threats that have left America’s closest allies and economic partners reeling. Countries eager to negotiate relief from U.S. trade restrictions now find themselves bewildered by a president whose policies can shift dramatically from one day to the next.
From steep new tariffs on Canada to punitive measures against Brazil, Trump’s latest maneuvers underscore how deeply trade has become intertwined not just with economic strategy, but with personal and political disputes under his administration.
Canada Hit Despite Concessions
The shockwaves began Thursday when Trump announced a 35% tariff on numerous Canadian imports, effective August 1. The move blindsided Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, who was racing to secure a trade agreement with Washington by July 21.
Adding to the confusion, Canada had just made a significant gesture toward easing tensions: On June 29, Ottawa scrapped its proposed digital services tax—a levy Trump had fiercely opposed because it threatened U.S. tech giants.
Yet Trump’s letter to Carney dismissed these efforts, accusing Canada of taking advantage of the United States and vowing to impose new financial pressure.
“We have been patient, but our patience is exhausted,” Trump wrote. “American businesses and workers must be protected.”
Brazil Targeted Over Political Disputes
Trump’s trade war rhetoric quickly spread southward. On Wednesday, he imposed a punitive 50% tariff on Brazilian goods, citing what he labeled a “witch hunt” trial against former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, a close Trump ally facing charges for attempting to overturn his 2022 election defeat.
In a letter to Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Trump inaccurately blamed Brazil for running a chronic trade surplus with the U.S., despite data showing the opposite. American exports to Brazil have outpaced imports for 18 consecutive years, with a $29 billion surplus recorded last year alone.
Eswar Prasad, a professor of trade policy at Cornell University, said the move reveals how Trump uses tariffs as tools for political influence far beyond economics.
“Trump seems to view tariffs as an instrument to influence not just other countries’ trade and economic policies but even their domestic legal and political matters,” Prasad observed.
Baseline Tariffs Could Rise
Trump’s threats didn’t stop there. In an NBC interview Thursday, he hinted at raising his baseline tariff on most imports from the current 10% to as high as 20%. He argues these tariffs will help fund the costly tax cuts contained in his recently passed “One Big Beautiful Bill,” which slashed taxes for individuals and corporations but widened the federal deficit.
Such across-the-board increases would risk new retaliatory measures from trading partners and potentially ignite further disruptions in global supply chains.
Few Deals Despite Big Promises
Earlier this year, Trump launched what he dubbed a “90 days, 90 deals” blitz, aiming to extract concessions from dozens of nations by threatening tariffs of up to 50% on countries running trade surpluses with the U.S.
Yet as the initial 90-day deadline expired on Wednesday, only two countries—Vietnam and the United Kingdom—had finalized agreements with Washington. Rather than imposing immediate reciprocal tariffs, Trump issued letters to 23 countries warning of tariff hikes ranging from 20% to 50% if no deals were reached by August 1.
Chad Bown, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, said it was unsurprising that Trump struggled to secure more agreements.
“Each country faces domestic political constraints,” Bown explained. “There’s a reason why those market barriers exist. They can’t simply vanish because of a few weeks of negotiations.”
Malaysia and Others Draw the Line
Many countries remain deeply cautious about Trump’s demands. Malaysian Trade Minister Zafrul Aziz declared Wednesday that certain “red lines” cannot be crossed, citing issues like government procurement rules, halal certification standards, medical regulations, and a digital tax.
However, Malaysia has offered significant concessions, including plans to buy 30 Boeing aircraft and expand cooperation on semiconductors and technology. Aziz insists any agreement must be mutually beneficial:
“If the deal does not benefit Malaysia, we should not have a deal.”
Meanwhile, Thailand—facing the threat of a 36% tariff—has offered to open its markets to more U.S. agricultural, energy, and industrial products to stave off Trump’s measures.
Vietnam Strikes a Deal
Among the few successes Trump claims is a new agreement with Vietnam, announced earlier this month. Trump’s team boasts that the deal provides U.S. companies duty-free access to Vietnam’s market, while imposing a 20% tariff on Vietnamese exports to the United States. However, details remain scant, fueling skepticism about how substantive the deal truly is.
Stephen Miran, chair of Trump’s Council of Economic Advisers, called the Vietnam deal “fantastic,” insisting it was “extremely one-sided” in favor of American interests.
The Global Fallout
Trump’s aggressive trade agenda has left America’s partners weighing whether to compromise, resist—or simply try to wait him out.
“Trump’s focus is not necessarily on the substance of deals,” said William Reinsch, a former U.S. trade official now at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “For him, the squeeze is more important than the juice. He wants to be seen as winning, regardless of the details.”
Mark Carney’s political career in Canada offers a telling example of domestic backlash against Trump’s tactics. His Liberal Party staged a dramatic comeback in April’s elections, fueled in part by Carney’s refusal to yield to U.S. pressure.
Meanwhile, other nations are increasingly looking for ways to reduce their economic dependence on the U.S. Canada, for instance, is pursuing new trade agreements with Southeast Asian countries, some of which are themselves forging closer ties with China.
Navigating Trump’s Unpredictability
Matthew Goodman of the Council on Foreign Relations said Trump’s tactics put foreign governments in a difficult bind.
“These countries need the U.S. market,” Goodman said. “But they’re going to be increasingly unhappy and resistant to the most over-the-top requests.”
As Trump barrels toward more tariff deadlines, trading partners are scrambling to find strategies that allow him to claim victory publicly while minimizing the economic damage to their own industries.
Yet the unpredictability remains the greatest challenge.
“It’s hard for trading partners to know where they stand with Trump on any given day,” said Wendy Cutler, former U.S. trade negotiator and now vice president at the Asia Society Policy Institute. “What more may be coming their way when least expected?”
For America’s trading partners, it’s a constant game of guessing Trump’s next move—a high-stakes puzzle with billions of dollars on the line.
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