U.S.–China Trade Talks Advance: Rare Earths, Soybeans & Tariffs/ Newslooks/ WASHINGTON/ J. Mansour/ Morning Edition/ The United States and China are moving toward a trade agreement ahead of the upcoming meeting between Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, with key issues like rare‑earths, tariffs and soybean purchases on the table. While no sweeping deal is expected, both sides say they’ve reached a “preliminary consensus” and a framework is in place. Progress on China’s export controls, U.S. tariffs and agricultural buying could stabilize global markets.
U.S.–China Trade Talks: Quick Look
- China and the U.S. say they’ve achieved a “preliminary consensus” ahead of Trump‑Xi summit this Thursday.
- Rare‑earth minerals, where China dominates global supply, are a key sticking point.
- U.S. export controls on Chinese tech firms and China’s tariffs on U.S. goods remain under negotiation.
- China may agree to increased U.S. soybean purchases, easing farm‑gate pressure in America.
- Trump signalled confidence, saying “we want to make a deal and they want to make a deal.”
- Markets responded favourably, as tariff escalation appears to be off the table.
- Experts warn this isn’t a grand bargain, but rather a tactical detente.
- Both countries face structural tensions — over industrial policy, overcapacity, and supply‑chain dependence.
- Analysts emphasize that supply‑chain diversification (especially for critical minerals) will still take years.
- The war of tariffs and export controls isn’t over, but the risk of near‑term escalation appears reduced.
U.S.–China Trade Talks Advance: Rare Earths, Soybeans & Tariffs
Deep Look
WASHINGTON (AP) — The world’s two largest economies — the United States and China — are inching closer to a trade truce this week, though they are unlikely to settle all their differences before Presidents Trump and Xi meet on Thursday in Busan, South Korea. Still, enough progress appears likely on strategic minerals, tech controls and agricultural buying to appease financial markets and reduce the risk of an outright economic blow‑up.
U.S. and Chinese officials used the weekend to signal that an agreement was within reach. China’s top trade adviser, Li Chenggang, told reporters a “preliminary consensus” had been reached. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent declared a “very successful framework.” Trump himself said Chinese representatives “want to make a deal and we want to make a deal.”
Still, as veteran trade diplomat Jeff Moon put it, “They’re trying to get to some kind of détente… there’s no pretense that they’re going to reach a grand bargain that solves everything.”
Rare Earths: China’s Strategic Lever
One of the central issues is China’s dominion over rare‑earth minerals — elements critical to electronics, electric vehicles, defence systems and more. Beijing currently processes over 90% of some rare‑earth supply chains.
China has already tightened export controls on rare earths and magnets, including foreign companies handling even small quantities of Chinese‑origin material.
In response, the U.S. considers reducing its dependence and has signalled that China might “delay” export curbs for a year while negotiations proceed. Bessent told ABC the U.S. expected China to “delay” its curbs.
U.S. businesses remain wary, since even strong announcements won’t undo decades of Chinese dominance. For example, domestic magnet‑maker Noveon Magnetics in Texas reports receiving many calls from firms scrambling to replace Chinese supply.
Soybeans & Agriculture: Carrots for U.S. Farmers
U.S. farmers, especially soybean growers, may see relief. China bought about a quarter of U.S. soybean exports historically, but shifted toward Brazil and Argentina this year.
Treasury Secretary Bessent, who himself owns soybean farmland, said negotiations will cover “substantial soybean and ag purchases for American farmers.”
Still, farmers and analysts caution that until concrete volumes and enforceable commitments are laid out, optimism remains tempered. “Nothing would discourage farmers more if there’s a very ambitious announcement and then nothing ends up transpiring,” said soybean‑industry expert Mike Steenhoek.
Given China has already shifted to other suppliers, the question is how much appetite it has to return to U.S. soy. Still, Beijing may make modest purchases for goodwill.
U.S. Export Controls: Tech Tensions Persist
Chinese companies are seeking relief from tight U.S. export controls on sensitive tech, while the United States wants more transparency and enforcement of Chinese supply‑chain rules. In September, the U.S. expanded restrictions to include foreign affiliates of black‑listed Chinese firms.
The Chinese Commerce Ministry called these measures “extremely bad” and said they would harm legitimate business. In private commentary, trade lawyer Ted Murphy said the U.S. might relax controls to support the broader deal.
However, Bessent told CBS this weekend that “there have been no, no changes in our export controls.” So while negotiations proceed, technology restrictions remain a hard line.
The Bigger Picture: Structural Rivalry Remains
Even if the immediate deal succeeds, analysts warn the underlying tension remains — the U.S. and China are still competing over industrial policy, supply‑chain dominance and the future of globalization. Moon said:
“We can’t decouple… there are things we both need from each other… If you continue trying to damage the other side… then both sides die the death of a thousand cuts.”
Why This Matters
- A deal reduces the risk of tariffs and export controls escalating suddenly, which would have global economic ripple‑effects.
- For U.S. manufacturing and defence, ensuring access to rare earths is critical.
- For U.S. farmers, access to China’s massive agricultural market is politically and economically significant.
- For both countries, signaling cooperation may calm jittery markets and global supply‑chain stress.
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