US foreign policy, the retreat and the unspoken questions.
Many critics of the Biden Administration believe that the U.S. positions on the Middle East, the Arab world, and world issues in general no longer form the backbone of US foreign policy.
On the Syrian crisis, the USA is no longer demanding the overthrow of Assad’s regime, but instead it is acknowledging its survival under Russian protection.
They also believe that the American invasion of Iraq ended by handing it over to Iran on a silver platter, and Tehran’s influence on Iraq’s internal issues is not a secret.
Friends and allies believe that the current American administration is unconcerned about what is going on in the North African region, particularly the growing tensions between Algeria and Morocco, and that its positions on the Libyan issue and the Tunisian constitutional crisis have not gone beyond the limits of some brief and broad statements, not to mention its timid stance on the Egyptian-Ethiopian dispute over the Renaissance Dam.
Moreover, welcoming Iran back to the negotiating table softened the American position towards Tehran and its proxies in the region, a decision that was not well seen by the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, Israel and many of America’s allies in the Arab world.
We no longer hear the United States’ demand for Russia to withdraw from Crimea, to the extent that some have admitted that this presence has become a fait accompli that “America has no power to confront”.
The way and timing of the US withdrawal from Afghanistan has sparked a deep debate in the US political arena. Important questions have been raised about the tactic of this exit, its feasibility, consequences, and repercussions.
Most of what was said about this important political and strategic decision did not go beyond the borders of Afghanistan or a little around it in the Central Asian region.
The discussion about the US withdrawal from Afghanistan implicitly raised many other questions, most of which fall under the category of unspoken.
So, what are these questions?
Has the United States really entered a state of isolation and retreat, the goal of which may be economic recovery, overcoming the consequences of the COVID 19 pandemic, and focusing on national issues that concern the daily life of the American citizen?
Have the Biden administration and the Democratic Party decided to block the Republicans’ path by focusing on American internal issues and playing the America First card, which may be correct tactically at the electoral level but may result in many losses for the United States and its national security?
Every void that America leaves today will soon find China and Russia ready to fill it, politically and economically.
However, others see the opposite and believe that many of the foreign policy decisions of this administration are inherited from previous administrations, and that we are witnessing an era of healing wounds, reducing losses, and caring for America’s image globally by bringing our troops home and trying to lead from behind in many global conflicts.
Some would argue that more important in this administration’s view is the focus on China, and the challenges and risks it poses to US national and international interests. From their point of view, work must be done to get the country out of its internal problems and focus on developing its infrastructure, creating job opportunities, and maintaining the position of the United States as the leader in industry, science, and technology.
It is the economic power of the United States that guarantees its world leadership, and it is the only way to deter China, not to engage in local conflicts and foreign wars that drain the American economy and undermine its development projects.
For those who support this administration’s foreign policy, the leadership of the United States is a foregone conclusion, and what some consider a retreat is, in their view, just a pause and part of a long-term tactic.
Leading from behind does not necessarily mean giving up the keys and solutions to many global problems. The United States is still the world’s first economy and the strongest military force, and it is undoubtedly a societal democratic project that guarantees its unity and internal cohesion.
The post-Coronavirus pandemic phase may constitute an opportunity for the United States to hold more grip on the fate of the global economy, which may allow it to impose its political position and discredit the theory of the decline of the American role globally.
Some may think today that the United States stands idly by in front of Iran’s nuclear ambitions.
There are even those who believe that Iran’s possession of a nuclear bomb has become a matter of time because of the US’s precaution not to cause an armed conflict that might have the most serious consequences for the global economy.
But what they do not know is that formulating an American strategy to curb Chinese and Russian’s influence may constitute the final blow to Iran’s nuclear ambitions.
The same amount of time that the United States needs to deal with Iran’s benefit from Russian and Chinese support is the same time Iran needs to complete its nuclear capabilities. This is the same time that Bashar al-Assad needed to rearrange his position in Syria, Hezbollah in Lebanon, Al-Hawti group in Yemen, and the Taliban movement in Afghanistan, not to mention the rest of the extremist movements around the world.
The first indicators of multipolarity at the global level gave plenty of time for many forces to engage in the game of diversifying alliances, therefore the opinion that favors dealing with China and Russia first is based on the hierarchy of influence. In their view, the US involvement in the Afghan and Iraq wars represented a golden opportunity for the Russians and the Chinese, thus they are now reaping the fruits of its benefits by imposing their positions in several regions of the world, starting with Libya and ending with Iran.
Therefore, I see that rearranging the cards of the United States at the international level will only take place by taking advantage of its economic advantage, especially energy and food, and using it to compel the Russians and the Chinese to comply with the terms of the game of commercial interest.
While we are waiting to see indications of this tactical shift, the Biden administration may leave, and a new American administration will come.
This is another issue with which visions and priorities may change.
