Von der Leyen to Meet Trump in Scotland Over EU-US Trade Deal/ Newslooks/ WASHINGTON/ J. Mansour/ Morning Edition/ European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will meet President Donald Trump in Scotland this Sunday to discuss a potential EU-U.S. trade deal, with tensions high over proposed U.S. tariffs. Trump described the chances of reaching an agreement as “50-50.” A last-minute deal could avert harsh tariffs set to take effect August 1.
EU-US Trade Talks + Tariff Deadline Quick Looks
- Von der Leyen and Trump to meet Sunday in Scotland to discuss trade
- Trump says odds of deal are “50-50, maybe less”
- 10% baseline tariff nearly agreed to three weeks ago, but Trump threatened 30% tariffs instead
- Trump extended deadline for new U.S. tariffs to August 1
- EU expects 15% baseline tariff deal to emerge
- If no deal is reached, EU will retaliate with tariffs on €93B in U.S. goods
- Trump imposed tariffs on 60 countries in April, some as high as 50%
- $370 billion in U.S. exports to EU at risk
- Trump says deal hinges on EU agreeing to “buy down” tariffs
- Previous deal with Japan cited as optimistic precedent
Deep Look
Von der Leyen, Trump Set Sunday Meeting in Scotland With EU-US Trade Deal Hanging in the Balance
BRUSSELS, July 25, 2025 — With less than a week until a major tariff deadline, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is set to meet with U.S. President Donald Trump this Sunday in Scotland to negotiate a potential EU-U.S. trade agreement.
‘Von der Leyen announced the meeting via social media platform X, stating that after a “good call” with Trump, the two sides agreed to convene in person to “discuss transatlantic trade relations and how we can keep them strong.”
The meeting comes at a critical juncture, as Trump has floated increasing tariffs on European imports just weeks after derailing what was reportedly a near-final agreement on a 10% baseline tariff. Trump instead threatened to impose tariffs as high as 30%, pushing back the original July 9 deadline to August 1, giving both sides more time to strike a deal.
Deal Status: 50-50 — or Worse?
Speaking before departing for his five-day visit to the U.K., Trump told reporters the deal’s fate remains uncertain:
“I would say that we have a 50-50 chance, maybe less than that, of making a deal with the EU,” he said.
According to EU diplomats, officials are preparing for the possibility of settling on a 15% U.S. baseline tariff, a compromise option floated in back-channel discussions. Still, they warn the atmosphere is tense, and retaliatory plans are ready if talks fall apart.
EU Retaliation Plan: €93 Billion in U.S. Goods
If Trump moves forward with his threatened tariffs, the EU is prepared to strike back. Diplomats say the bloc has already approved a package to impose tariffs on €93 billion worth of American goods, a significant escalation that would impact both manufactured products and services.
The U.S. exported roughly $370 billion in goods to the EU in 2024, making the stakes especially high for sectors like automobiles, pharmaceuticals, agriculture, and energy technology.
Trump has insisted any trade deal must require EU countries to “buy down their tariffs”, asserting that current EU barriers to American exports are too high.
“They’re right now at 30 percent,” Trump claimed. “They’ve got to stop that.”
EU Response: Calm but Calculated
EU negotiators have been working feverishly behind the scenes to avoid a collapse of talks. Despite Trump’s unpredictability, EU sources expressed measured optimism, pointing to his recent trade pact with Japan as a hopeful sign.
“I would have said we have a 25 percent chance with Japan. And they kept coming back, and we made a deal,” Trump told reporters.
The U.S.-Japan agreement, finalized last week, involved compromises from both sides and is now seen as a blueprint for how a similar deal with Europe might unfold.
Scotland Talks Will Shape Global Trade Landscape
Trump is currently in Scotland, touring his golf resorts in Turnberry and Aberdeen, and meeting with UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Scottish First Minister John Swinney. On Sunday, he’ll shift focus from golf to geopolitics, when he sits down with von der Leyen to try and salvage the EU trade deal.
Also on the agenda: a possible U.S.-EU “Economic Prosperity Deal” that would further slash tariffs, deepen transatlantic cooperation, and restore confidence in global trade under Trump’s administration.
Von der Leyen’s visit could define the trajectory of U.S.-EU relations for years to come.
