Whatever outcome Vienna talks have, Israel will be discontented
As seventh round of discussions between international powers and Iran resume in Vienna, each party began using the media tool to pressure the other, while “Israel” remains conspicuously absent and present at the same time at the negotiating table.
Iran remains adherent to its position, demanding the lifting of sanctions completely, and compensation for the period that was imposed on it after the withdrawal of the administration of former US President Donald Trump from the nuclear agreement (with it), which was signed in 2015 during the era of former US President Barack Obama, and his then Vice President, Joe Biden. Tehran also demands guarantees of Washington’s commitment not to withdraw from any agreement (to be) concluded.
Iran also holds the US administration responsible for any of the repercussions caused by withdrawal from the JCPOA agreement, which – some believe – has strengthened Iran’s negotiating position and weakened the US and other countries’ positions.
The increasing number of US statements alluding to the use of the military option against Iran’s nuclear program, in coordination with “Israel”, in the event of the failure of the diplomatic option, injects added uncertainty and disincentive for Iran to proceed with talks, which may doom these talks to failure, which probably explains the lack of optimism surrounding the talks.
The fate of the Vienna talks ranges between complete collapse of the talks, or possibly reaching a temporary partial agreement that constitutes a can maintain some ground for negotiation at a later stages, or the success of the Western and Iranian parties in formulating a comprehensive agreement.
For Israel, it believes that all options range from bad to worse. Although it seeks, through all available tool and methods to abort any agreement with Iran, and the continued imposition and tightening of sanctions on it, ultimately persuading the US administration to use the military option to destroy the Iranian nuclear program, this option, despite its preference by Israel, is a very risky option. More than likely, such an option will lead the outbreak of a multi-front regional war.
The US administration is trying to use its Israeli ally to make repeated threats to attack Iran militarily, (and the carrying-out of military maneuvers) are designed to pressure Iran to relent or compromise its position during the ongoing talks; to become more flexible and closer to the Western position.
Israel believes that Iran’s transformation into a nuclear state constitutes an existential threat to it, and a nuclear arms race will be launched in the Middle East, which means breaking the Israeli exclusive grip on possessing of nuclear weapons. It fears that Iran will become a more power in the region, and it may transfer nuclear technology to its allies in the region, and the countries of Arab normalization will become less trusting of “Israel”, and its efforts to include other countries in the so-called “Abraham agreements” will be hampered.
Israel also believes that the United States of America, during the presidency of Joe Biden, will not attack Iran militarily, even if Iran comes close to possessing a nuclear bomb. It believes that America and the international community can coexist with an Iran that possess a nuclear bomb, putting tht blame on Israel responsible, given that it was the Israeli government, during the era of its former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, that prompted (Netanyahu’s pal), Trump, to withdraw from the nuclear agreement with Iran, which leaves Israel facing challenges and in a state of dilemma.
Israel considers that the scenario of the success of the Vienna talks in reaching a nuclear agreement between the West (along with Russia and China) and Iran will be an Iranian success, leading to the lifting of sanctions (on Iran) , and bestowing international legitimacy on Iran, while not totally eliminating the possibility of a nuclear Iran in the distant future. Israel also seeks to hold Iran accountable for its ballistic missile-stockpile, and its aid for Lebanese and Palestinian resistance groups, something, experts believe< Iran will never agree to.
These same experts believe that all scenarios post Vienna talks, are likely not to be comfortable for Israel. The reason being, is Iran’s success in thwarting the policy of maximum sanctions imposed by former US President Donald Trump in 2018, in order to force it to return to the talks with a lower ceiling than the 2015 agreement, will bolster Iran. Tehran seems to have thwarted attempts to tamper with its internal affairs, on economic grounds, and has overcome external and internal challenges. It is now negotiating from a more confident and powerful position, and realizes that the last thing Biden wants, is to ignite a new military confrontation in the Middle East. More by Said Arikat