Iran’s attack on Israel raises fears of a wider war, but all sides have also scored gains

The unprecedented attack by Iran on Israel early Sunday ratcheted up regional tensions, confirming long-held fears about the Israel-Hamas war spiraling into a broader conflagration. But Iran, Israel, the United States and Hamas also walked away with some gains.

Here’s a look at the fallout.

Quick Read

• Iran’s Unprecedented Attack on Israel: Iran’s military strike on Israel heightened regional tensions but also showcased the strengths of the involved parties. Over 300 drones and missiles were launched towards Israel, which successfully intercepted 99% of these threats with significant assistance from allies, demonstrating a strong defense capability that contrasts with its earlier setbacks against Hamas.
• Military Reputations on the Line: For Israel, the effective response to Iran’s assault may help to rehabilitate its military image, which was tarnished by the initial successes of Hamas in the ongoing conflict. Iran, on the other hand, used the attack to demonstrate its military capability and resolve, following threats of retaliation for an Israeli strike on its facilities in Syria.
• U.S. Involvement and Support: The United States played a crucial role in thwarting the attack, reinforcing its commitment to Israel’s defense. This incident underscores the reliability of American military support and might influence future U.S. leverage over Israeli actions in the region.
• Potential Gains for Hamas: Hamas might see Iran’s direct engagement as a potential turning point in the broader regional conflict, possibly stiffening its resolve in negotiations over a cease-fire with Israel. The involvement of a significant backer like Iran could embolden Hamas and affect the dynamics of the ongoing war and peace talks.

The Associated Press has the story:

Iran’s attack on Israel raises fears of a wider war, but all sides have also scored gains

Newslooks- TEL AVIV, Israel (AP) —

The unprecedented attack by Iran on Israel early Sunday ratcheted up regional tensions, confirming long-held fears about the Israel-Hamas war spiraling into a broader conflagration. But Iran, Israel, the United States and Hamas also walked away with some gains.

Here’s a look at the fallout.

ISRAEL’S RESPONSE COULD RESTORE FAITH IN ITS MILITARY

As the more than 300 drones and missiles headed toward Israel in the early hours of Sunday, the country was able to successfully put to the test its aerial defense array, which, along with help from allies, blocked 99% of the projectiles and prevented any major damage.

By contrast, Israel’s military had suffered a bruising defeat at the hands of a far less equipped enemy when Hamas stormed from Gaza into Israel on Oct. 7. That was a major blow to Israel’s image as a regional military powerhouse and shattered any sense of invincibility. The response to Iran’s attack could be what restores faith in the country’s military, even as its forces are bogged down in Gaza, more than six months after Israel declared war on Hamas there.

Israel has also boasted about the coalition of forces that helped it repel the Iranian assault. It’s a much-needed show of support at a time when Israel is at its most isolated because of concerns surrounding its conduct during the war against Hamas, including a worsening humanitarian crisis and a staggering death toll in Gaza.

IRAN SHOWS OFF ITS MIGHT

Iran vowed repeatedly that it would respond to an apparent Israeli strike on an Iranian diplomatic compound in Damascus on April 1 that killed two generals. Sunday’s assault allowed Iran to show to its citizens that it won’t stand by when its assets are attacked and that it was serious when it threatened revenge.

With its strike, Iran was able to exhibit its fierce firepower, instill fear in some Israelis and disrupt the lives of many through school cancellations. But with little damage actually caused in Israel, Iran might hope that any response will be measured. Several hours after it launched the drones and missiles, Iran said the operation was over.

THE UNITED STATES STOOD BY ISRAEL

The U.S. was a key player in repelling the assault, demonstrating to its allies around the world the power and reliability of American support.

Now, as Israel mulls how and whether to respond, that alliance will be put to the test, with the Biden administration seeking to exert its leverage on Israel and prevent it from carrying out a response that might worsen the conflict.

HAMAS MAY BENEFIT FROM IRAN’S DIRECT INVOLVEMENT

Hamas, which is backed by Iran, welcomed the strike on Israel. Since launching its Oct. 7 attack, Hamas had hoped that regional partners might come to its assistance and drag Israel into a broader war. While some have done — including the Iranian-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon and Yemen’s Houthis — Iran had not directly entered the fray until Sunday.

Hamas could hope that the attack is the first salvo in deeper Iranian engagement in the war in Gaza. It also could hope that violence in the West Bank, where an Israeli teen was killed and settlers rampaged in Palestinian towns, continues to heat up. At the very least, Iran’s attack may have emboldened Hamas to dig in its heels in current negotiations over a cease-fire, hoping the increased military pressure on Israel might lead it to accept the militant group’s harder-line terms for a deal.