Trump Says Iran Deal Chances Are ‘50/50’ This Weekend/ Newslooks/ WASHINGTON/ J. Mansour/ Morning Edition/ President Donald Trump said he could decide by Sunday whether to resume military action against Iran after reviewing Tehran’s latest proposal. US and Iranian officials signaled cautious optimism as mediation efforts by Pakistan and Qatar pushed negotiations forward. Key sticking points remain Iran’s uranium stockpile, sanctions, and control of the Strait of Hormuz.

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Trump Iran Decision Quick Looks

• Trump may decide on military action by Sunday.
• The White House sees deal odds as “50/50.”
• Pakistan and Qatar are mediating negotiations.
• Marco Rubio says “progress” is being made.
• JD Vance and Jared Kushner joined discussions.
• Iran seeks an end to war and sanctions.
• The Strait of Hormuz remains a major dispute.
• Tehran warns of stronger retaliation if war resumes.
• Gulf leaders joined regional diplomatic outreach.
• Framework talks could lead to broader negotiations.

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Deep Look

Trump Reviews Iran Proposal as War Decision Nears

President Donald Trump said Saturday that he could decide within days whether the United States will resume military action against Iran, as negotiators race to finalize a framework agreement aimed at ending the conflict.

Speaking in a phone interview with Axios, Trump described the odds of reaching an agreement with Tehran as a “solid 50/50.”

The president said the outcome could either produce a “good” deal or lead the United States to “blow them to kingdom come.”

White House Holds High-Level Iran Meetings

Trump said he planned to meet with senior advisers later Saturday to review Iran’s latest proposal.

According to reports, the meeting includes:

• Special envoy Steve Witkoff
• Adviser Jared Kushner
• Vice President JD Vance
• Senior national security officials

Regional sources also told CNN that Trump was expected to speak with leaders from:

• Qatar
• Pakistan
• Turkey
• Egypt

The calls are part of an intense diplomatic effort to prevent the conflict from escalating again.

Rubio Signals Possible Breakthrough

Secretary of State Marco Rubio suggested that negotiations may be nearing a critical stage.

“There may be news later today,” Rubio told reporters in New Delhi.

“Even as I speak to you now, there’s some work being done.”

Rubio reiterated Washington’s core demands:

• Iran must never obtain a nuclear weapon
• Tehran must address enriched uranium stockpiles
• The Strait of Hormuz must remain open

Pakistan and Qatar Lead Mediation Push

Diplomatic mediation has increasingly centered around Pakistan and Qatar.

Pakistan’s military chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, held intensive meetings in Tehran over the past two days aimed at bridging remaining gaps between Washington and Tehran.

Pakistan’s military described the talks as “highly productive” and said the negotiations showed “encouraging progress toward a final understanding.”

Qatar also dispatched senior officials to assist mediation efforts.

Iran Focuses on Ending War First

Iranian officials emphasized that current negotiations are centered primarily on ending hostilities rather than immediately resolving nuclear disputes.

Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei said Tehran is focused on finalizing a memorandum of understanding addressing:

• Ending the war
• Lifting the US naval blockade
• Releasing frozen Iranian assets overseas

Baghaei noted nuclear issues are not currently part of the main negotiations.

Strait of Hormuz Remains Critical Flashpoint

One of the biggest unresolved issues involves the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz.

Iran effectively closed the key shipping route after the war began, disrupting global energy markets and sending oil prices sharply higher.

Baghaei insisted any future agreement governing the waterway must involve:

• Iran
• Oman
• Gulf states bordering the strait

He argued the United States “has nothing to do” with control of the passage.

Iran Warns Against Renewed US Attacks

Despite optimism around diplomacy, Iranian officials issued strong warnings against renewed military action.

Iranian negotiator and parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said Iran’s military has rebuilt its capabilities during the ceasefire.

“If Trump makes the mistake of restarting the war, it will definitely be more crushing and bitter for America than the first day of the war,” Ghalibaf warned.

Regional Sources See Momentum Building

Several regional officials described negotiations as moving in a “positive trajectory.”

One source familiar with the discussions said:

“The deadlock is over.”

Still unresolved are disputes over:

• Uranium enrichment
• Iran’s domestic nuclear program
• Sanctions relief
• Maritime access through Hormuz

Officials suggested any immediate agreement would likely create a temporary framework while broader negotiations continue over the next 30 to 60 days.

Trump Balances Diplomacy and Military Pressure

The negotiations underscore Trump’s dual-track strategy of military pressure and diplomatic engagement.

Although Trump has repeatedly threatened renewed strikes, he has also delayed military action several times while encouraging negotiations.

Sources close to the talks say the president appears increasingly frustrated with the slow pace of diplomacy but still sees a potential path to a deal.

Global Markets Watching Closely

The outcome of the talks carries enormous global implications.

The conflict has already:

• Driven up oil prices
• Increased inflation pressures
• Roiled global shipping markets
• Heightened fears of wider Middle East instability

A framework agreement could calm markets and reopen energy trade routes, while renewed fighting could trigger another major geopolitical and economic shock.

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