AP Poll Shows Trump Loses Ground With Independent Voters Nationwide/ Newslooks/ WASHINGTON/ J. Mansour/ Morning Edition/ A new AP-NORC analysis shows President Donald Trump’s support among independent voters has steadily declined throughout his second term. The sharpest drop came among independents without college degrees, a key part of Trump’s electoral coalition in 2024. Economic concerns, particularly inflation and the rising cost of living, appear to be driving much of the dissatisfaction ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.

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Trump Independent Voter Support Quick Looks

• AP-NORC analyzed 21 surveys conducted between July 2024 and April 2026.
• Independent support for Trump has declined steadily during his second term.
• Non-college independents showed the largest drop in approval.
• Hispanic independents have become significantly less supportive.
• Younger independents are increasingly dissatisfied.
• Older independents remain relatively stable in their views.
• Inflation and cost-of-living concerns remain top voter issues.
• About 8 in 10 independents now describe the economy as poor.
• Only about 3 in 10 independents approve of Trump’s handling of the economy.
• The findings could signal challenges for Republicans ahead of midterm elections.

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Deep Look

New Polling Reveals Growing Independent Voter Discontent

President Donald Trump is facing increasing challenges among one of the most important voting blocs in American politics: independent voters.

A new analysis conducted by the Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research found that support for Trump among independents has declined steadily throughout his second term, raising fresh questions about the durability of the coalition that helped return him to the White House in 2024.

The findings are particularly notable because independents represented a critical source of support during Trump’s successful comeback campaign. Unlike Democrats and Republicans, whose views have remained relatively stable, independent voters appear to be reassessing their support as economic and political developments unfold.

Sharpest Decline Among Non-College Independents

One of the most significant findings involves independent voters without a college degree.

During the months surrounding the 2024 election, roughly half of these voters held favorable views of Trump. That support has since fallen dramatically.

According to the AP-NORC analysis:

• Favorability among non-college independents stood near 48% around the election.
• Support dropped to 31% during Trump’s first 100 days in office.
• Approval later declined further to roughly one-quarter of respondents.

The decline effectively erased the educational divide that once existed among independent voters.

Before Trump took office, college-educated independents were already considerably more skeptical. Today, both groups report similarly low levels of support.

“The decline among no-college independents was steeper and it was greater than the slight decline in college independents,” said researcher Sean Collins.

“That was surprising, especially given, when you think of Trump’s coalitions, those without college degrees is usually one of the ones that stands out.”

Hispanic Independents Drift Away

The polling also suggests that gains Trump made among Hispanic voters during the 2024 campaign may not be holding.

Hispanic independents were among the groups that moved toward Trump during the election cycle, helping strengthen his overall coalition.

However, support has deteriorated significantly since then.

Nearly half of Hispanic independents viewed Trump favorably during the election period. That figure declined rapidly after he returned to office and at one point fell to just 15% during last year’s government shutdown.

Current approval among Hispanic independents now sits around one-quarter.

Researchers believe the decline could indicate that some of Trump’s election gains among traditionally Democratic-leaning groups may prove temporary.

“The gains Trump appeared to make during the election, I don’t know if they’re sticking around,” said NORC researcher Tafari Torres.

“He’s experienced some significant shifts among those people.”

Younger Voters Also Becoming More Critical

The analysis found another important divide based on age.

Younger independent voters have become increasingly dissatisfied with Trump during his second term, while older independents have remained comparatively stable.

This trend mirrors broader polling that has shown declining support among younger Americans who remain concerned about affordability, inflation and economic opportunities.

The growing skepticism among younger independents could become a key factor in future elections, particularly if economic concerns persist.

Economic Concerns Drive Frustration

The economy appears to be the primary factor behind the decline in support.

Trump’s 2024 victory was fueled in large part by voters who believed he would better manage inflation and lower living costs.

Many independent voters cited economic concerns as their top reason for supporting him.

However, more than a year into his second term, inflation remains elevated and consumer costs continue to frustrate voters.

Recent polling found:

• Roughly 8 in 10 independents describe the U.S. economy as poor.
• Only about 3 in 10 approve of Trump’s handling of the economy.
• Just 12% approve of his management of the cost of living.
• Many remain concerned about grocery and gasoline prices.

The ongoing Iran conflict has also contributed to energy market volatility, keeping pressure on fuel prices and household budgets.

Why Independents Matter

Independent voters have become increasingly influential in American elections.

A growing share of Americans now identify as independents rather than aligning with either major political party.

Because these voters often determine the outcome of competitive races, shifts in their attitudes can have major implications for congressional elections.

The AP-NORC analysis suggests that while Trump continues to maintain strong support among Republican voters, independent voters are becoming more skeptical as his second term progresses.

“Independents are, broadly, the people who are reacting to the events and dropping in their support,” Torres said.

What It Means For The Midterms

Historically, midterm elections often serve as a referendum on the party controlling the White House.

With Republicans defending their congressional majorities this fall, continued erosion among independents could complicate the party’s efforts to maintain control of Congress.

While voter attitudes can shift significantly before Election Day, the latest polling indicates that economic concerns remain the dominant issue shaping independent voters’ views of the president.

Whether the administration can reverse those trends may depend largely on inflation, energy prices and broader perceptions of economic stability in the months ahead.

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