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NATO threat raised with Russian footholds in Mideast, Africa

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The world is creeping ever so closer to a worldwide conflict that could engulf all of Europe and bring parts of the middle east and Asia into the struggle, NATO is watching Russian moves in those regions as the we are close to World War III. Putin’s strategy in the Mideast and Africa has been simple, and successful: He seeks out security alliances with autocrats, coup leaders, and others who have been spurned or neglected by the U.S. and Europe, because of their bloody abuses. As reported by th AP:

Putin is busy advancing Russia’s presence in the Middle East and Africa — an expansion that military and civilian leaders view as a threat to Western security

BEIRUT (AP) — Russian President Vladimir Putin‘s invasion of Ukraine dominates world, and NATO attention. But with less global scrutiny, Putin is also busy advancing Russia’s presence in the Middle East and Africa — an expansion that military and civilian leaders view as another, if less immediate, threat to security in the West.

FILE – A woman passes a billboard showing Russian President Vladimir Putin in Damascus, Syria, on March 7, 2022. The Arabic in poster reads, “The victory for Russia.” (AP Photo/Omar Sanadiki, File)

Putin’s strategy in the Mideast and Africa has been simple, and successful: He seeks out security alliances with autocrats, coup leaders, and others who have been spurned or neglected by the U.S. and Europe, either because of their bloody abuses or because of competing Western strategic interests.

— In Syria, Russia’s defense minister last month showed off nuclear-capable bombers and hypersonic missiles over the Mediterranean, part of a security partnership that now has the Kremlin threatening to send Syrian fighters to Ukraine, among NATO worrys.

FILE – In this photo released by Russian Defense Ministry Press Service, a Russian MiG-31 fighter jet carrying a Kinzhal missile takes off from the Hemeimeem air base in Syria on June 25, 2021. The Russian military on Friday launched sweeping maneuvers in the Mediterranean Sea featuring warplanes capable of carrying hypersonic missiles, a show of force amid a surge in tensions following an incident with a British destroyer in the Black Sea. (Russian Defense Ministry Press Service via AP, File)

— In Sudan, a leader of a junta that’s seized power in that East African country has a new economic alliance with the Kremlin, reviving Putin’s dreams of a naval base on the Red Sea.

— In Mali, the government is the latest of more than a dozen resource-rich African nations to forge security alliances with Kremlin-allied mercenaries, according to U.S. officials.

Especially in the last five or six years, “what you’ve seen is a Russia that is much more expeditionary and casting its military power further and wider afield,” retired U.S. Gen. Philip M. Breedlove told The Associated Press.

“Russia is trying to show itself as a great power, as at the seat in world affairs, as driving international situations,” said Breedlove, the second-highest military commander in NATO from 2013 through 2016, and now a distinguished chair at the Middle East Institute think tank in Washington.

FILE – Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, left, and Syrian Foreign Minister Faisal Mekdad enter a hall for a news conference following their talks in Moscow, on Feb. 21, 2022. (Alexander Nememov/Pool Photo via AP, File)

But with Putin’s hands already full battling the fierce resistance from a much weaker Ukrainian military, experts view his expansionist goals in the Middle East and Africa as a potential long-term threat, not a present danger to Europe or the NATO alliance.

“It’s threatening NATO from below,” Kristina Kausch, a European security expert at the German Marshall Fund think-tank, said of the leverage Russia is gaining. “The Russians have felt encircled by NATO – and now they want to encircle NATO,” she said.

To achieve its strategic aims, Russia provides conventional military or Kremlin-allied mercenaries to protect the regimes of often outcast leaders. In return, these leaders pay back Russia in several ways: cash or natural resources, influence in their affairs, and staging grounds for Russian fighters.

FILE – In this photo released by the Russian Foreign Ministry Press Service, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, and Sudanese Foreign Minister Maryam al-Sadiq al-Mahdi arrive to attend talks in Moscow, on July 12, 2021. (Russian Foreign Ministry Press Service via AP, File)

These alliances help advance Putin’s ambitions of returning Russia’s influence to its old Cold War boundaries.

Russia’s new security partnerships also aid it diplomatically. When the U.N. General Assembly condemned Putin’s Ukraine invasion this month, Syria joined Russia in voting against, and many of the African governments that have signed security deals with Russian mercenaries abstained.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Friday that Russia would bring recruits from Syria to fight in Ukraine. The threat was seen primarily as an intimidation tactic and U.S. officials say there’s been no sign of Syrian recruits in Ukraine. Some security experts say Russian mercenaries are using Mali as a staging ground for deployment to Ukraine, but U.S. officials have not confirmed these reports.

FILE – A Russian warship is docked in the Port Sudan, in Port Sudan, Sudan, on Feb. 28, 2021. The Interfax News Agency cited the press service of the Russian Navy’s Black Sea Fleet saying the frigate Admiral Grigorovich arrived at Port Sudan where a naval facility will be established, according to the agreement between Russia and Republic of the Sudan. (AP Photo, File)

Regardless of how imminent the threat is, U.S. and European leaders are paying increasing attention to Putin’s moves in the Middle East and Africa — and Russia’s growing alliance with China — as it formulates plans to protect the West from future aggression.

German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said in mid-February that the West could no longer ignore the competition for influence across Africa, where China spends billions on infrastructure projects to secure mineral rights, and Russia provides security through Kremlin-allied mercenaries.

“We see and realize that if we withdraw from this competition as liberal democracies, then others are going to fill these gaps,” Baerbock said as Western diplomats huddled on the Ukraine crisis, in the last days before Russia’s invasion.

FILE – This image from video provided by the Russian Defense Ministry Press Service, a Tu-22M3 bomber of the Russian air forces flies over the Mediterranean after taking off from the Hemeimeem Air Base in Syria, on Feb. 19, 2022. The Russian military on Friday announced massive drills of its strategic nuclear forces. (Russian Defense Ministry Press Service via AP, File)

Perhaps the boldest example of Russia flexing its global reach was when it sent defense minister Sergei Shoigu last month to Damascus to oversee Russia’s largest military drills in the Mediterranean since the Cold War, just as Russia’s military made final preparations for its assault on Ukraine.

The drills, involving 15 warships and about 30 aircraft, appeared choreographed to showcase the Russian military’s capability to threaten the U.S. carrier strike group in the Mediterranean.

Russia’s Hmeimeem air base on Syria’s Mediterranean coast has served as its main outpost for launching attacks in Syria since September 2015. Russia’s attacks in Syria, which leveled ancient cities and sent millions of refugees to Europe, allowed President Bashar al-Assad’s brutal government to reclaim control over most of the country after a devastating civil war.

“Hmeimeem base is now an integral part of Russia’s defense strategy not just in the Middle East but all the world,” said Ibrahim Hamidi, a Syrian journalist and senior diplomatic editor for Syrian affairs at the London-based Asharq al-Awsat newspaper.

FILE – In this photo released by Russian Foreign Ministry Press Service, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, second right, and the U.N. special envoy for Syria Geir Pedersen, left, attend the talks in Moscow, on Feb. 23, 2022. (Russian Foreign Ministry Press Service via AP, File)

In Africa, too, Russia is open to working with leaders known for anti-democratic actions and abuses of human rights.

On the eve of Russia’s invasion with Ukraine, Kremlin officials met in Moscow with an officer of a military junta that seized power in Sudan.

Isolated by the West, Gen. Mohamed Hamdan Dagolo warmly responded to Russia’s overture of a new economic-focused alliance. Upon returning home, Gen. Dagolo announced that Sudan would be open to allowing Russia to build its long hoped-for naval base at Port Sudan on the Red Sea.

FILE – In this photo released by Russian Foreign Ministry Press Service, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, second right and Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, right, Brazil’s Foreign Minister Carlos Franca, left, and Brazil’s Defense Minister Walter Souza Braga Netto, second left, talk before talks in Moscow, on Feb. 16, 2022. (Russian Foreign Ministry Press Service via AP, File)

It’s far from certain that Russia would be able to take advantage anytime soon. The Ukraine invasion is straining its military and financial resources and showing Russia’s military weaknesses, and international sanctions are crippling its economy.

But longer-term, a Red Sea port could help give it a greater role in the Mediterranean and Black Sea, increase Russian access in the Suez Canal and other high-traffic shipping lanes, and allow Russia to project force in the Arabian Sea and Indian Ocean.

“They certainly could create enough havoc to cause problems,” said Breedlove, the former NATO commander.

Russia’s expanding alliances aren’t just about its conventional military.

FILE – People join a government-sponsored rally in Mali’s capital Bamako on Jan. 14, 2021, to protest new regional economic sanctions and growing pressure from former coloniser France, after Mali’s military ruler pushed back promised elections by four years. Sign reads: “France Out” , “Mali is proud of its sons” and “Thank you Colonel Assimi Goita.” (AP Photo/Harandane Dicko, File)

From 2015 to 2021, Russian mercenary security outfits increased their presence around the world seven-fold, with operations in 27 countries as of last year, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies. The most prominent is the Wagner Group, which the U.S. and EU consider to be a surrogate of the Russian military, but which the Kremlin denies even exists.

From Libya to Madagascar, security contracts granted to Wagner Group and others give Russia access to mineral resources, staging grounds for deployments and substantial footholds challenging Western nations’ influence there.

In Mali, the U.S. and Europe expressed alarm in December at reports that the Wagner Group had signed a $10 million-a-month security contract with that government. Experts say Wagner took advantage of local unhappiness over the failures of a years-long French-led deployment in the sub-Saharan targeting extremist factions.

FILE – In this image from video provided by the Russian Defense Ministry Press Service on Feb. 15, 2022, Russian Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, left, listens to Syrian President Bashar Assad during their talks in Damascus, Syria. (Russian Defense Ministry Press Service via AP, File)

Mali denied any such deployment, but some in Mali saw the arrival of Russians as a slam to Mali’s colonial ruler France, which had struggled to protect them against armed extremists. They hope for better results from any Russian fighters arriving in the sub-Saharan. “Long live Russia!” cried one man in a crowd cheering the sight of a Russian delegation in the capital in January. “Long live the people of Mali!”

By ELLEN KNICKMEYER and ZEINA KARAM

Knickmeyer reported from Washington. reporter Bassem Mroue contributed from Beirut.

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