Much of central US faces severe thunderstorm threat, possible tornadoes

Tens of millions of Americans stretching from Lincoln, Nebraska, to Baltimore could face strong thunderstorms Monday night through Wednesday, with tornadoes possible in some states. A large storm system hitting much of the central U.S. over the next few days is expected to bring severe thunderstorms to Kansas and Nebraska on Monday evening, the National Weather Service’s Storm Prediction Center said.

Quick Read

• Severe Weather Alert: A large storm system is expected to impact a vast area from Lincoln, Nebraska, to Baltimore, threatening tens of millions in the central U.S. with severe thunderstorms from Monday through Wednesday.
• Tornado Potential: The National Weather Service’s Storm Prediction Center warns of potential strong tornadoes in Kansas and Nebraska on Monday evening. Slight risks also exist in Oklahoma, Missouri, and Virginia.
• Storm Movement and Impact: Following the Great Plains, the system is forecasted to advance into the Mississippi Valley, Great Lakes, and Ohio Valley by Tuesday, posing risks of severe weather and isolated flash flooding.
• High-Risk Areas: Southern Iowa, Northern Missouri, and Central Illinois are particularly at risk on Tuesday for significant hail and potential tornadoes.
• Characteristics of Storms: The likelihood of tornadoes on Monday evening in parts of Kansas and Nebraska may increase due to the development of discrete supercells—intense storms characterized by rotating, powerful updrafts.
• Tornado Season Insights: While May is often seen as the midpoint of tornado season, marked by the most potent and deadly tornadoes, variations in tornado occurrences are noted each year.
• Climate Impact on Tornado Patterns: There is a growing belief among scientists that tornado activity is shifting eastward from the Great Plains toward the Mississippi River, possibly influenced by climate shifts that make the western plains drier.

The Associated Press has the story:

Much of central US faces severe thunderstorm threat, possible tornadoes

Newslooks- WASHINGTON (AP) —

Tens of millions of Americans stretching from Lincoln, Nebraska, to Baltimore could face strong thunderstorms Monday night through Wednesday, with tornadoes possible in some states. A large storm system hitting much of the central U.S. over the next few days is expected to bring severe thunderstorms to Kansas and Nebraska on Monday evening, the National Weather Service’s Storm Prediction Center said.

The two states could see strong tornadoes, too, while parts of Oklahoma, Missouri and Virginia face a slight risk.

Severe scattered thunderstorms are also expected to bring strong winds, hail and flash flooding.

WHAT AREAS ARE MOST AT RISK?

After moving through the Great Plains, NWS says the the storm system could move into the Mississippi Valley, Great Lakes and Ohio Valley areas on Tuesday and bring “severe weather and isolated flash flooding.”

Southern Iowa, Northern Missouri and Central Illinois face the largest threat of “significant hail and tornado potential,” on Tuesday the agency said.

The risk of tornadoes forming Monday evening over parts of Kansas and Nebraska will increase with the development of a few, discrete supercells, NWS said. Those are the tall, anvil-shaped producers of tornadoes and hail that have a rotating, powerful updraft of wind often lasting for hours.

WHEN IS TORNADO SEASON AND IS IT CHANGING?

May is generally considered the midpoint of tornado season, said Harold Brooks, a tornado scientist at the National Severe Storms Laboratory.

Brooks said late April to the middle of May is when the strongest tornadoes that cause fatalities usually appear.

“There’s a lot of uncertainty in those estimates,” Brooks added, because of how much each tornado season varies year to year.

Some scientists believe that over the past few decades, tornadoes in the U.S. have been shifting — with more spinning up in states along the Mississippi River and farther east. But scientists aren’t entirely sure why that’s happening.

One possible factor could be that the western Great Plains are getting drier thanks to climate change, said Joe Strus, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service, “and so your precipitation has shifted east a little bit.”

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